Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.

Monday, December 24, 2012

UNHAPPY HOLIDAYS

As pointed out in earlier blogs, a more full explanation of the following Sentiment Indicators can be found at my Examiner.com column:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Date>		12/21/2012	12/14/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13190	13135
	NAZ	3021	2971
	SPX	1430	1413
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		10.0/4.8	8.8/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.08	2.67
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.8	17
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2127/1040	1390/1762
Weekly Net:		1087	-372
Cumulative:		142419	141332
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	349/75	264/85
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	219/98	168/109
McClellan	Oscillator	12	-3
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	481	360
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	46.8	45.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	24.5	23.4
	AAII -Bull :wed.	46.4	43.2
	Bear	24.8	30.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	.16/25	17/5.
CEOinsider	selling	34:1	37:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(7.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(8.8B)	1.5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		318Boct.
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	747/304/244	734/296/239
Assets in	Billion$$ .	Nov.	Oct.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.25%	Best wishes for a Happy Holiday to all readers!

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Christmas Sentiment

Here are the weekly Sentiment numbers -see the Examiner.com column for detailed explanations.

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Date>		12/14/2012	12/7/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13135	13155
	NAZ	2971	2978
	SPX	1413	1418
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.8/3.3	8.5/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.67	2.58
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17	15.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1390/1762	1499/1641
Weekly Net:		-372	-142
Cumulative:		141332	141704
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	264/85	267/64
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	168/109	151/114
McClellan	Oscillator	-3	22
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	360	274
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	45.7	43.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.4	25.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	43.2	42.2
	Bear	30.1	34.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	17/5.	7/0.
CEOinsider	selling	37:1	52:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	64
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(7.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.5B	32.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.25%

Sunday, December 9, 2012

IT'S BEEN A LONG, LONG TIME-

Year end is almost upon us, with markets unusually quiet awaiting some decision on 2013. In my Examiner.com column I mention a survey of 64 years of stocks at year's end. Mostly positive, sentiment indicators tend to the cautious downside for now.
Please see:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

for more commentary on the indicators below. The reader can "Subscribe" for regular updates.

Date>		12/7/2012	11/30/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13155	13025
	NAZ	2978	3010
	SPX	1418	1416
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.5/3.3	8.8/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.58	2.38
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.9	15.87
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1499/1641	1973/1193
Weekly Net:		-142	780
Cumulative:		141704	141846
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	267/64	289/59
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	151/114	156/110
McClellan	Oscillator	22	51
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	274	148
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43.6	39.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.5	27.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	42.2	40.9
	Bear	34.6	34.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	7/0.	7/(3)
CEOinsider	selling	52:1	23:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	64	64
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(.5B)	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	32.3B	10.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		318Boct.
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond		734/296/239
Assets in	Billion$$ .		Oct.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.27%

Monday, December 3, 2012

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM

Last week's sentiment numbers are posted below - please see Examiner.com article for commentary:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Date>		11/30/2012	11/23/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13025	13009
	NAZ	3010	2966
	SPX	1416	1409
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.8/3.7	5.5/2.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.38	2.50
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.87	15.14
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1973/1193	2804/362
Weekly Net:		780	2442
Cumulative:		141846	141066
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	289/59	183/77
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	156/110	72/147
McClellan	Oscillator	51	50
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	148	-62
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	39.3	37.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	27.7	27.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	40.9	35.8
	Bear	34.4	40.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	7/(3)	6/13.
CEOinsider	selling	23:1	14:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	64	60
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	10.1B	26.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	318Boct.
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	734/296/239
Assets in	Billion$$ .	Oct.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.28%

Monday, November 26, 2012

Decade Highs and Lows:

Date>	DECADE	HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	14093	6626
	NAZ	2937	1114
	SPX	1561	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.15	1.59
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		143458	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	Jan.09:108	May.'12:110
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	-1514
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	15.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	381B(7/07)
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

EXAMINE THIS! :

As mentioned in previous blogs, explanation and interpretation of Sentiment Indicators will be shown on my Examiner.com site each week, as well as meeting notices, DITM, etc.:
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers from last week:
(Also shown below - decade highs and lows for each Indicators)

Date>

11/23/2012

11/16/2012

Indices:

DJIA

13009

12588

NAZ

2966

2853

SPX

1409

1359

WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE

5.5/2.2

9.4/3.5

Specul.Ratio hi=bullish

2.50

2.69

nasd/nyse

Sentiment:

put/call-CBOE

VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8

15.14

16.4

Advance/Dec-NYSE..

2804/362

671/2512

Weekly Net:

2442

-1841

Cumulative:

141066

138624

Weekly

NYSE hi/low

183/77

133/392

New Hi's/Low's

Nasdaq h/l

72/147

65/361

McClellan

Oscillator

-54

McClellanSum

.+750/-1000

-62

-125

Newsletter

Inv.Intel -Bull:tues

37.2

38.3

Surveys

Bear:-5yrs

27.7

28.7

AAII -Bull :wed.

35.8

28.8

Bear

40.8

48.8

COT:Change w/w

large/small (net)k

6/13.

CEOinsider

selling

14:1

15:1

3-box rev

Bullish%-

US equity -ICI

Fund Flows

1weeklag

MMF flows

Change in $B

26.6B

(2.5B)

MargDebt- top (300M)

monthly

ETF:Eqty/

Int'l/Bond

Assets in

Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

0.28%

0.25%

Monday, November 19, 2012

RALLY TIME!:

As mentioned last week, for more explanation (text) on the Sentiment Indicators, please click on the link below (Subscribe for automatic weekly reminders and updates).

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Date>		11/16/2012	11/9/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12588	12815
	NAZ	2853	2904
	SPX	1359	1379
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.4/3.5	8.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.69	2.47
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	77	73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.4	18.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		671/2512	876/2294
Weekly Net:		-1841	-1418
Cumulative:		138624	140465
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	133/392	275/186
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	65/361	129/233
McClellan	Oscillator	-54	-44
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-125	206
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.3	43.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	27.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	28.8	38.5
	Bear	48.8	39.9
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	6/13.	1/18.
CEOinsider	selling	15:1	36:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	58	65
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(2.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2.5B)	31B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		315Bsept
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond		758/289/233
Assets in	Billion$$ .		sept.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.27%

Monday, November 12, 2012

SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL

In the future, to avoid duplication of efforts and save time, the Market Sentiment blog:

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com

will be produced in a weekly Examiner column.

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

This blog, written for a decade or more, lists and analyzes Sentiment Indicators that have proved most effective in predicting market direction, based on human behavior. Although the Examiner is more friendly to prose commentary, the table will still be posted at the above link, due to production capability. A more comprehensive explanation of the numbers in the matrix will be possible.

Date>		11/9/2012	11/2/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12815	13093
	NAZ	2904	2982
	SPX	1379	1414
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.9/3.6	5.5/2.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.47	2.29*
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	73	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		18.6	17.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		876/2294	1919/1222
Weekly Net:		-1418	697
Cumulative:		140465	141883
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	275/186	318/87
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	129/233	169/138
McClellan	Oscillator	-44	-19
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	206	339
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43.6	41.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	27.7	27.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	38.5	35.7
	Bear	39.9	23.3
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	1/18.	1/24.
CEOinsider	selling	36:1	13:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	65	70
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	31B	(22.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	315Bsept	287B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	758/289/233	715/270/230
Assets in	Billion$$ .	sept.	week
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.29%

Monday, November 5, 2012

WHIPSAW WEEK:

In a classic whipsaw last week, due to the storm closures, the markets experienced a Candlestick Doji on Hallowe'en, followed by huge back to back days going nowhere. As investors and voters wait on tenterhooks for the election results ( hopefully sometime Tuesday night despite east coast problems), markets remain sideways.
It is obviously hard to tell what markets will do based on the results - an Obama victory would keep much of the Fiscal Cliff alive - PPACA, benefits, (Debt), etc., while a Romney victory would see the Bernanke put expire worthless, ending the sugar high equities markets.

Because of the two-day hiatus Volume was low, but still a speculative 2.29:1 ratio of NASD to NYSE; the CBOE equity put/call ratio lessened a bit, but still high (Bullish). Breadth ( Advance to Declines) swung mightily from negative to positive, as did NASD new highs/lows. Newsletter surveys came out despite the storm (Tues. & Wed. results) but diverged widely, as shown below.

The McClellan Oscillator is still negative while its cumulative Summation is headed down to zero - don't expect a new Bull market until it bottoms out well below the zero line, if past is prologue.
Finally, over $22B came out of MMFunds last week.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		11/2/2012	10/26/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13093	13107
	NAZ	2982	2987
	SPX	1414	1411
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		5.5/2.4	9.0/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.29*	2.65
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	75
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.6	17.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1919/1222	1151/1998
Weekly Net:		697	-847
Cumulative:		141883	141186
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	318/87	231/113
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	169/138	117/186
McClellan	Oscillator	-19	-37
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	339	381
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.5	41.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	27.7	27.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	35.7	29.2
	Bear	23.3	43.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	1/24.	(3)/30
CEOinsider	selling	13:1	55:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	70	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(1.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(22.7B)	.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	287B	AUG.:
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	715/270/230	AUG.:
Assets in	Billion$$ .	week
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.29%	0.31%

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

BACK IN ACTION:

After an extended weekend caused by weather on the Eastern coast, a review of last week saw contained sideways motion between 1400 and 1420 on the S&P 500 (SPX). So far today (Hallowe'en) markets have re-opened but are anything BUT scary.
Indicators seem to be mostly Bullish into the election, with the put/call ratio up to 75 and the McClellan Oscillator minus 37 ( I like -50 for oversold). Opinion surveys, which report midweek, are diverging, with the Inv.Intell. complacent but the AAII nervous. Bullish % actually gave a SELL signal with its 7 point drop, and Insider Selling leapt up from 12:1 to 55:1 over Buying.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		10/26/2012	10/19/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13107	13343
	NAZ	2987	3005
	SPX	1411	1433
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.0/3.4	9.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.65	2.58
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	75	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.8	17.06
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1151/1998	1864/1288
Weekly Net:		-847	576
Cumulative:		141186	142033
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	231/113	468/70
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	117/186	220/131
McClellan	Oscillator	-37	-18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	381	557
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.5	42.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	27.7	26.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	29.2	28.7
	Bear	43.1	44.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(3)/30	. 4/24
CEOinsider	selling	55:1	12:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(1.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	.9B	5.8B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	AUG.:	287B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	AUG.:	715/270/230
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.30%