I wrote about a chart from Ned Davis - NDR Research - showing stock markets during incumbents' , non- incumbents', and all election years. In the current period - July through October, all three had rises of varying degrees. That is the good news. The divergence comes after Oct.1, when, if Obama loses, the market is due to tank for the remainder of the year. Of course, there are always exceptions!
( tried to paste the chart on this blog but it would not take it - I will attach it to my email alert subscribers).
( tried to paste the chart on this blog but it would not take it - I will attach it to my email alert subscribers).
Merrill Lynch notes that due to the flight to safety (?) of Treasurys, stock investors percentage is the lowest since 1985; also Wall Street strategists, as opposed to analysts, are only recommending 44% in stocks, a 25-year low (56% is usually a BUY signal).
Despite last week's late huge rally, stocks were down slightly for the week - mostly affecting newsletter surveys, which come out Tues. and Wed. Still, the AAII Bull/Bear ratio is still inverted a bit. MMF inflows reversed to outflows; breadth remained strong, but most others were tame.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 8/3/2012 | 7/27/2012 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 13096 | 13075 |
| NAZ | 2967 | 2958 | |
| SPX | 1390 | 1385 | |
| NASD/NYSE | WklyVolume (Bshs). | 8.5/4.1 | 9.0/4.1 |
| nasd/nyse | Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.07 | 2.19 |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 69 | 68 |
| Barron's | VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 15.6 | 16.7 |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1754/1383 | 1893/1269 | |
| Weekly Net: | 371 | 624 | |
| Cumulative: | 138214 | 137843 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 517/114 | 411/190 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 176/201 | 138/255 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 4 | 16 |
| McClellan Sum | .+750/-1000 | 508 | 544 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 39.4 | 40.4 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 27.7 | 26.6 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 30.4 | 28.1 | |
| Bear | 34.9 | 43.1 | |
| COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | 2/(3) | (2)/(14) |
| CEOinsider | selling | 12:01 | 15:01 |
| BalticDryIndex | GlobalEcon | discont. | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 68 | 61 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1 wk lag | (2.1B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (4.0B) | 16.2B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | JUNE: 284 B | |
| ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond | million$$ . | JUNE: 686/258/222 | |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.25% | 0.26% | |
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