After 25 years in this business one learns to disregard 99% of what he reads and hears - the exception is when there is a consensus of intelligent life from those whom one respects, in this case: fund guru Michael Steinhardt,Louise Yamada, and, recently Woody Brock - all of whom feel the market has a bit to go on the upside, then down some more...possibly drastically. And Stephen Leuthold thinks June could rally more due to fund managers not yet invested before the quarter ends.
In this anticipation of a holiday, with very low Volume Friday, most indicators regressed to their mean, although the Investors' Intelligence survey and AAII postcards are sending a differing message of Bearishness - one will prevail.
The Baltic Dry Index of global shipping continues to rise, as China leads the economic way at 8% GDP.
Add to this mix that a Florida realtor in Barrons wrote that a second downwave of Real Estate madness is about to enfold there and elswehere starting in June.
Here are the sentiment numbers:
MktSentiment. 5/22/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8277……….8268.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1692……….1680…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 887…………882………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …64…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 32.6……….33.1…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………-29………..-38……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…1076………1132……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…40.7…………41……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 29.1………..33.7…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.7/45.4…43.8/35.2….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……2786………2544…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…65………….67………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers.13:1……….19:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows .. .8B……..2.3B
ETF Inflows……… .7B……..4.8B
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