After 25 years in this business one learns to disregard 99% of what he reads and hears - the exception is when there is a consensus of intelligent life from those whom one respects, in this case: fund guru Michael Steinhardt,Louise Yamada, and, recently Woody Brock - all of whom feel the market has a bit to go on the upside, then down some more...possibly drastically. And Stephen Leuthold thinks June could rally more due to fund managers not yet invested before the quarter ends.
In this anticipation of a holiday, with very low Volume Friday, most indicators regressed to their mean, although the Investors' Intelligence survey and AAII postcards are sending a differing message of Bearishness - one will prevail.
The Baltic Dry Index of global shipping continues to rise, as China leads the economic way at 8% GDP.
Add to this mix that a Florida realtor in Barrons wrote that a second downwave of Real Estate madness is about to enfold there and elswehere starting in June.
Here are the sentiment numbers:
MktSentiment. 5/22/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8277……….8268.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1692……….1680…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 887…………882………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …64…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 32.6……….33.1…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………-29………..-38……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…1076………1132……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…40.7…………41……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 29.1………..33.7…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.7/45.4…43.8/35.2….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……2786………2544…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…65………….67………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers.13:1……….19:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows .. .8B……..2.3B
ETF Inflows……… .7B……..4.8B
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.
This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
GREEN SHOOTS OR WEEDS?:
Conventional wisdom believes that the market should continue to rise into Fall, although a few frequent TSAA guest speakers (www.tsaasf.org) quoted this week in Barron's are skeptical of the longer term: Jim Bianco, feels the $8T in corporate debt could cause a second leg down; William Gibson of S.F.'s Nollenberg says the Primary Trend is down based on which stocks have led the recent rally - the top 10 RSI (Relative Strength) stocks were the beaten down dogs, while quality EPS stocks lagged; Bob Prechter weighs in with his usually gloomy forecast of the DJIA receding 50 to 80% more!
Sentiment extremes this week were centric except for a couple notables: the McClellan Oscillator went negative (-38) for the first time since March 6, although the Summation Index is still overbought at the thousand level. The Baltic Dry Index is once again screaming upwards, to the 2500 level - an indication of global economies rebounding, especially in the Far East.
Money is starting to flow back into both open end mutual funds and ETFs, and the Bullish per cent topped out at 74 the previous week (now 67), leading to its 3-box (2Pt.& fig.), or 6% correction SELL signal.
Here are the numbers:
Sentiment extremes this week were centric except for a couple notables: the McClellan Oscillator went negative (-38) for the first time since March 6, although the Summation Index is still overbought at the thousand level. The Baltic Dry Index is once again screaming upwards, to the 2500 level - an indication of global economies rebounding, especially in the Far East.
Money is starting to flow back into both open end mutual funds and ETFs, and the Bullish per cent topped out at 74 the previous week (now 67), leading to its 3-box (2Pt.& fig.), or 6% correction SELL signal.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 5/13/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8268……….8574.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1680……….1739…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 882…………929………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …63…………..59……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 33.1……….32.0……….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………-38…………52………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…1132………1217……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41…………..40.4…….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 33.7………..31.5…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……43.8/35.2…..44.1/33.3….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……2544………2214…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…67…………..74………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers.19:1………..32:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows ..2.3B………2B
ETF InflowsL……… 4.8B……..(4.3B)……
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.
Monday, May 11, 2009
FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME:
From May to December! In previous blogs I have noted the huge difference in the historical semi-annual cycle market performance - the near-neutral of the May to Nov. period, versus the astronomical complementary period. So far, this year is no different, with the huge rally YTD, although technician Ned Davis says we still have much farther to go up, including May.
While most indicators are becoming slightly complacent, moving into the midrange, the newsletter surveys have finally slipped from their Bearish stance (Bullish FOR the market) rather materially; the Bullish Per Cent is at recent record highs at 74, and the McClellan Summation Index surpassed +1,000 at 1217.
CEO Insider Selling is still huge, albeit down from the previous record weeks. And the public is starting to enter Mutual Funds again, a bad sign.
Here are the numbers:
While most indicators are becoming slightly complacent, moving into the midrange, the newsletter surveys have finally slipped from their Bearish stance (Bullish FOR the market) rather materially; the Bullish Per Cent is at recent record highs at 74, and the McClellan Summation Index surpassed +1,000 at 1217.
CEO Insider Selling is still huge, albeit down from the previous record weeks. And the public is starting to enter Mutual Funds again, a bad sign.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 5/08/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8574………8212.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1739………1719…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 929…………877………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …59…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 32.0………35.3…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………52…………43……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…1217………968……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…40.4…………36……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 31.5………..37.2…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……44.1/33.3…..36.1?43.6….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……2214………1806…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…74…………..67………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers.32:1………. 51:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows 2B………. (.25B
ETF InflowsL……… (4.3B)……(.75B)…
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Monday, May 4, 2009
SINKO DE MAYO?:
Even though Ned Davis Research says not to "Go Away in May", one must feel that a 30% runup in the DJIA and S&P 500 (40% in Russell and Emerging markets) feels a little dangerous, what with a 35% decline in Q1 Earnings and a GDP shortfall of 6.1%, following the 6.3% the quarter before.
Stocks have managed to run up through much of the recent previous Resistance, albeit on low Volume considering single-digit quality stocks which have doubled, should have given more of it. The Nasdaq composite and SPX have broken up through the "Ice" ( suggesting a fall back to retest the Ice), and the DJIA is just below an 8400 Resistance, in my view.
Sentiment Indicators have changed little since last week, with the exceptions of the McClellan Summation Index bumping up on 1,000; the Bullish per cent is in high ground at 67, and CEO Insider Selling is still huge, at over 50 to 1 (recent normal has been single-digit selling).
Here are actual numbers:
Stocks have managed to run up through much of the recent previous Resistance, albeit on low Volume considering single-digit quality stocks which have doubled, should have given more of it. The Nasdaq composite and SPX have broken up through the "Ice" ( suggesting a fall back to retest the Ice), and the DJIA is just below an 8400 Resistance, in my view.
Sentiment Indicators have changed little since last week, with the exceptions of the McClellan Summation Index bumping up on 1,000; the Bullish per cent is in high ground at 67, and CEO Insider Selling is still huge, at over 50 to 1 (recent normal has been single-digit selling).
Here are actual numbers:
MktSentiment. 5/01/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8212………8076.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1719………1694…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 877…………866………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …63………….70……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 35.3………36.8…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………43………….56……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…968……….789……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36………….39.1……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 37.2……….34.5…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……36.1?43.6…31.8/38.6….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……1806………1897…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…67…………..62………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 51:1………..56:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (.25B)……1.2B
ETF InflowsL……… (.75B)……..0
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.