Monday, December 15, 2008

CHICAGO: BRING BACK AL CAPONE!:

It seems that all the players, Republicans and Democrates, are getting their balls off the playing field before the Obamanation levels it in the coming years - legally or illegally. Money continues to flow out of stock mutual funds and into Money Market funds and Treasurys, for little or no return. 50% of foreign-owned Treas. are 3 years or less and will need to be rolled. QTD, stocks are down 22%, Treas. up 13%.
This week's Bullish readings "for" the market include a high CBOE put/call ratio, very high SDS (the S&P500 double-short ETF) Volume, and both the Baltic Dry Index (global economy proxy) and exchange short interest rose slightly, a reversal. Also, both newsletter surveys remain inverted to the Bear majority.
The downside includes the McClellan Oscillator above 50, Public to Specialist shorting at a new low, and a sell signal on the Bullish % chart (3 boxes down).
Here are the stats:
MktSentiment. 12/12/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8629……..8635………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1540……..1509…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 879……….. 876………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 79………….75………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 54.3………. 60…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………52…………….64……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-765………..-1089……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…25.3…………….23.1……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 46.2……………49.5…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……764……………663nl…………………………………663
AAII-Bull/Bear ………37.5/39.8……..31.3/44.9…....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 9.5nl……….. 13.0nl… …….……22-10/08…………9.5
Bullish%- …….…52sell…………..31………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 10:1……4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (3.9B)……….(2.5B)
ETF InflowsL……….9.7B…………2.8B……
Money Market Inflows: 32B……….28B… … ………144B

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