Monday, December 17, 2007

DOW(n) JONES AVERAGES:

Or, as the limbo dancers dare: "How Low Can You Go?". Thanks to the unanimity of the talking (and writing) heads calling for a huge December rally, we've seen a depressing continuation of the Trading Range which started last June.
Newsletter surveys (which are out on Wednesday - at the start of the recent decline) seem to be buying into the rally. Fortunately, a couple of extremes are boding favorably for a Santa rally (which normally occurs between Xmas and New Year's): the CBOE Equity put/call ratio shot up to 84 last week, just off its '04 high of 87; the UBS Investor confidence (a monthly figure) is way low at 44. Cash is exiting Mutual Funds, but zooming into ETFs, while money market inflows abated considerably.
Finally, Insider selling action shot up to 22:1, with Healthcare the new leader.
Here are the stats:
Mktsentiment. 12/14/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13339………..13625………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2635………….2706…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1467…………1504…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …84……………65……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 23.3…………20.8…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05
Intrade.com-
Recession% 47……………44……………59(bullish)….31(bearish)
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-17…………58……………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-324…………..-439…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…53.3…………49.4………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 25.6…………27.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……47.6/35.7…….40.7/39.8……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…58……………56…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..44!nl ………70 ………178……………44
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.72…………8.57….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…14.7………….14…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………51.7/24.1……..48.3/27.6
Bullish%- ………52………………53……….…88 -2/04...... 36
*Insider corporate sellers.22:1………14:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Healthcare

No comments:

Post a Comment