What drives the stock market -Sentiment or Liquidity? In this case, both look favorable for the short run. Barron's states Private Equity is sitting on $300B cash, or $1T if levered to Reg T. margins. That, with loads of MMF cash is chasing fewer shares, as KKR, Citi and Tracinda get in the buyout mood.
Breadth also looks strong as Barron's cumulative A/D chart goes straight up (my cum A/D just broke 100,000 for the very first time). Although the two 9:1 Up/Down Volume days recently are still in play, last week only saw between 1:1 to 4:1 over the 4 days.
Although a few indicators such as McClellan Oscillator and Bullish % are edging up to a short term toppy area, Notable Numbers include an inverse AAII Bull/Bear ratio of 32:39 (rare Bullish stat).
I found disagreement in a couple data sources: Barron's Insider Trading chart from Thomson (with exceptions in the fine print) show a Bullish "under 12" reading, but the parent Co., WSJ itemized a 28:1 Selling ratio of Key employees. Also, Schaeffer's CBOE put/call shows 53 a/o Friday - CBOE shows 63, still down from the prior week.
Here are the numbers:
Mktsentiment. 4/6/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW
DJIA ………. 12560...........12767...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2471............2515............1114
S&P500…….. 1443............1455............776
CBOE Equity put/call .63............87-5/04........46-1/03
VIX ………. 13.2..........44 9/02........10.0-7/05
ISEE-call/put ……. 126...........299-12/04.......58 - 3/9/07
(>200/Bearish)
McClel Osc……………30...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum…………… 755..........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..50.6...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 25.6 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……….32.3/39.8....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 71......... 73..............24
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………33.3/30.0
Bullish%- ……….…72...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers 28:1
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