unLABOR DAY

A week before Labor Day, everyone, including global economists at Jackson Hole, seems to be on vacation - with both NYSE and Nasdaq Volume below normal levels. However, the recent market decline has reversed, as has the NYSE Hi/Lo reading. The AAII Bull/Bear ratio inverted to the Bear side (Bullish for stocks); the Dollar hit a new recent Low, and MMF inflows continue to expand, as they leave equity funds and ETFs. But Margin Debt leapt back to all time highs, with low interest rates. Not a good sign for when rates rise again, just as with the national debt of $20T !!
Here are the numbers:

Date		8/25/2017	8/18/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21813	21674
	NAZ	6265	6216
	SPX	2443	2425
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.6/3.5	9.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.17	2.31
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	14.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	48	51
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2126/944	1386/1678
Weekly Net:		1182	-292
Cumulative:		178803	177621
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	207/203	164/245
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	152/222	147/282
McClellan	Oscillator	8	-49
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	172	241
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	48.1	50.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	18.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.1	34.2
	Bear	38.3	32.8
US$-WSJ		92.5	93.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	65	54
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(11.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	29,4B	12.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.17	2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.33	1.31
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.1	114

WHY DOES A BICYCLE ALWAYS FALL DOWN?

Because it is two-tired !!
That's the way the market seem these lazy days of summer - August.
Last week the NYSE New Highs to Lows went negative, following the week before's Nasdaq lead. Advance/decline stocks also went negative.
Stocks on a BUY signal are barely positive (54), while its twin, the Delta MACD is at 51.
 With no signs of a Recession or Inflation, hopefully it's just setting up for a correction or reaccumulation for another winter rally.

Here are the numbers:

Date		8/18/2017	8/11/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21674	21858
	NAZ	6216	6256
	SPX	2425	2441
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.0/3.9	9.5/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.31	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.3	15.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	51	60
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1386/1678	561/2527
Weekly Net:		-292	-1966
Cumulative:		177621	177913
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	164/245	259/231
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	147/282	244/297
McClellan	Oscillator	-49	-69
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	241	460
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50.5	57.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.1	17
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	34.2	33.7
	Bear	32.8	32.3
US$-WSJ		93.4	93.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	54	67
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	12.6B	30B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.19
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.31	1.29
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	111.7

FEDERAL RESERVE OR FEDERAL REVERSE??

August's second half and September are the worst time of year for the Stock Market - will the Fed keep raising rates to fight no imminent Inflation? We finally got a shot across the bow last week with a market downdraft of more than 1%, but have rallied almost all the way back in a retracement - the McClellan Oscillator gave us the clue at minus 69 (below 50), and the CBOE put/call option ratio spiked to 81 as the VIX almost doubled. MMFs flows jumped up from mutual funds, and NYSE Breadth was terrible. See below:

Date		8/11/2017	8/4/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21858	22092
	NAZ	6256	6351
	SPX	2441	2476
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.5/4.0	9.7/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.38	2.26
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	81	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.5	10
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	60	66.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		561/2527	1522/1546
Weekly Net:		-1966	-24
Cumulative:		177913	179879
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	259/231	388/131
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	244/297	298/216
McClellan	Oscillator	-69	-13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	460	711
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	57.5	60
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17	16.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.7	36.1
	Bear	32.3	32.1
US$-WSJ		93.1	93.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	67	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(3.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	30B	20.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.19	2.26
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.29	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.7	113.6