COLUMNIST MANIFESTO

I'm thinking of becoming a columnist again (after Examiner.com, Marina Times, TSAA Review, et.al.) - it is so easy: just say The Fed is thinking of raising the interest rates, maybe in Sept, or Dec.!; Hillary and Trump are disagreeable again!!!

Despite well-meaning attempts to satisfy everyone's wellbeing with uncharted DEBT - gov't, personal, student loan, etc. the last 3 regimes have encouraged gov't misdirected spending - even George W (who thought Roe vs. Wade was how to cross the Potomac River). Pensions and retirement accounts getting zero interest cannot possibly repay beneficiaries down the line, as people live longer and the workforce dwindles. The almighty Dollar has sunk from 100 pennies to @ 6 in the past 50 years and promises to end up in wheelbarrows as the Weimar Mark did.

The current market, albeit in vacation time, is dead in the water as to direction. Last week's Sentiment Indicators are exactly like the week before. The McClellan Oscillator, due to a weaker Advance/Decline week, prompted Monday's rally, sinking almost to my minus 50  Buy signal. If it doesn't work, we are in deep trouble!

The Calm before the storm scares me - the time of year, the aforementioned Fed and Election, DEBT.
Barron's Option column notes the great complacency of low Volatility in options - a good time to get Hedged!!

Date>		8/26/2016	8/19/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18395	18552
	NAZ	5218	5238
	SPX	2169	2184
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.9/3.7	8.2/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.14	2.1
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.7	11.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	73%	73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1413/1707	1666/1447
Weekly Net:		-294	219
Cumulative:		172310	172604
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	409/29	410/25
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	364/75	383/81
McClellan	Oscillator	-35	-19
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	878	992
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.7	56.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	20.2	20
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	29.4	35.6
	Bear	29.6	26.4
US$-WSJ		94.7	94.5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	24.6	(34.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		447B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.63%	1.58%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.85%	0.75%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.5	116

SHOW ME THE MONEY

The annual Money Show is here in S.F. this week, but not too many recognizable names appearing. Tuesday afternoon features Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore. My finance group - TSAA- is hosting Stephanie Kammerman today, speaking on Dark Pools (she is also at the MS.
Outside of a rare Positive money flow (albeit minor) in mutual fund $$, and a Yuge decrease in MMF $$s,  all other Indicators were about the same as the prior week - see below:

Date>		8/19/2016	8/12/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18552	18576
	NAZ	5238	5232
	SPX	2184	2184
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.2/3.9	7.9/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.1	2.08
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	58	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	11.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	73%	71%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1666/1447	1681/1431
Weekly Net:		219	250
Cumulative:		172604	172385
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	410/25	551/23
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	383/81	370/99
McClellan	Oscillator	-19	-12
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	992	1065
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.2	54.3
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	20	28.9
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	35.6	31.3
	Bear	26.4	26.8
US$-WSJ		94.5	95.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	3.7B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(34.9B)	6.0B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	447B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.58%	1.51%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.75%	0.70%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116	116.3

EVERYTHING IS BEAUTIFUL

All systems go in the markets these days - only the second time this century that all markets - DJIA, NAS, and SPX- hit new highs together (first time was the week before this !!). Breadth  keeps going strong - New his/lows were 551 to 23 on NYSE. Stocks on BUY signals strong, but Volume weak - a divergence. Barron's option column states 6-figure purchases of VIX calls, expecting big volatility in Sept. Strong markets usually signal incumbent party to win election.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		8/12/2016	8/5/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18576	18543
	NAZ	5232	5221
	SPX	2184	2182
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.9/3.8	9.7/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.08	2.2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.5	11.3 yr.low
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	71%	70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1681/1431	1624/1492
Weekly Net:		250	132
Cumulative:		172385	172135
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	551/23	544/44
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	370/99	364/107
McClellan	Oscillator	-12	-5
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1065	1102
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	54.3	52.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	28.9	21.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	31.3	29.8
	Bear	26.8	26.8
US$-WSJ		95.7	96.2
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.0B	24B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		JUNE:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.51%	1.59%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.70%	0.73%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.3	115.7

HO HUM

It's like last week never happened in the world of Sentiment Indicators; despites some fluctuations, most remained exactly the same. The VIX dropped even lower. Possibly the Calm before the August storm???

 

Date>		8/5/2016	7/29/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18543	18431
	NAZ	5221	5162
	SPX	2182	2173
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.7/4.4	9.8/4.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.2	2.09
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3 yr.low	11.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	70%	74%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1624/1492	1729/1406
Weekly Net:		132	323
Cumulative:		172135	172003
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	544/44	603/33
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	364/107	401/89
McClellan	Oscillator	-5	-4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1102	1228
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	52.9	53.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	21.2	21.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	29.8	31.3
	Bear	26.8	28.4
US$-WSJ		96.2
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(4.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	24B	0
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	JUNE:	447B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.59%	1.50%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.73%	0.68%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.7	116.4

DOG DAYS OF AUGUST

August, for the past 20 years at least, has been the worst month for stocks of the 12, with Sept. not far behind. No wonder investors head for the hills or beaches. Expect Volatility.

Last week saw mixed markets - the DJIA was DOWN, the SPX (500) was FLAT, and the Nasdaq was UP! Sentiment was pretty much like last week. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Here are the numbers:

Date>		7/29/2016	7/22/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18431	18570
	NAZ	5162	5100
	SPX	2173	2175
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.8/4.7	8.6/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.09	2.26
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.9	12
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	74%	76%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1729/1406	1986/1151
Weekly Net:		323	835
Cumulative:		172003	171680
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	603/33	510/19
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	401/89	340/90
McClellan	Oscillator	-4	17
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1228	1256
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	53.9	54.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	21.6	23.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	31.3	35.4
	Bear	28.4	26.7
US$-WSJ			97.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(8.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	0	(5.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	447B	JUNE
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.50%	1.57%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.68%	0.72%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.4	116.1