As I await tomorrow, the 50th Anniversary of the Land's End Pub in San Francisco (now Soda Popinki's at 1548 California St, bet. Polk and Larkin Sts.) , owning it was probably the high point of my life (so far !). I shall reappear @ 5 pm. to celebrate all the memories of the two decades I was there. Join me if you are willing and able!!!
Then into August, in which month 6 of the past 8 stock markets were down, and the next one could be a doozy if the Fed ever gets out of the way of the Free markets. Even the 4-year Presidential cycle and 7-8 year cycle (think 2008, 2000, 1994, 1987). But what's to worry? TINA (There Is No Alternative to U S Stocks! What could possibly go wrong?
Yet another new high for stocks (sans OTC Composite), breadth remained huge (Yuge?) with NYSE new highs to lows : 510 to 19!!!! The Bullish % , Delta MACD crossover stocks on BUYs and McClellan Summation are getting quite high (but not rolling over).
Get ready for the Olympics and Election news ad nauseam!!!
This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Monday, July 18, 2016
Till Debt Do Us Part
No one, including our Fed, seems to be concerned about the massive Debt that the country - gov't, household- even global- is increasing. This cannot end well, whether now or (worse) later. Even reliable cycles - 7 to 8 year ( count from at least 1966), or the destructive 80-year (1930s) portend disaster. Debt to GDP (production) has gone from 55% in 2000 to 110% now (a double!!).
Record low interest rates usually indicate a bad Economy, but the Stock Market roars on!
The wrong Sectors - defensive - are leading the market - Util, Finance, Health, Staples. Quarterly earnings are down for the 5th Q. 18 of the last 19 Recessions have seen the Fed tighten in some manner; they also seem to occur @ the zero year of a decade.
But Breadth is incredibly strong recently - for only the third week in 2016 (since Feb.) mutual equity funds showed Inflows, only .3B - of course ETFs have gained more this year. NYSE new highs to lows were --- 659 to 11; stocks on BUY signals are high.
For the second month in a row (third this year) Insider Selling is huge (Bearish). Each time, including also last Nov., the market sold off.
Here are the numbers:
Record low interest rates usually indicate a bad Economy, but the Stock Market roars on!
The wrong Sectors - defensive - are leading the market - Util, Finance, Health, Staples. Quarterly earnings are down for the 5th Q. 18 of the last 19 Recessions have seen the Fed tighten in some manner; they also seem to occur @ the zero year of a decade.
But Breadth is incredibly strong recently - for only the third week in 2016 (since Feb.) mutual equity funds showed Inflows, only .3B - of course ETFs have gained more this year. NYSE new highs to lows were --- 659 to 11; stocks on BUY signals are high.
For the second month in a row (third this year) Insider Selling is huge (Bearish). Each time, including also last Nov., the market sold off.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 7/15/2016 | 7/8/2016 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 18516 | 18146 |
| NAZ | 5029 | 4956 | |
| SPX | 2161 | 2129 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 8.4/4.3 | 7.1/3.8 * |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.95 | 1.87 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 56 | 64 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 12.7 | 13.2 | |
| DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 67% | 55% |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2158/984 | 2073/1067 | |
| Weekly Net: | 1174 | 1006 | |
| Cumulative: | 170845nh | 169671nh | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 659/11 | 564/62 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 387/70 | 242/116 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 33 | 49 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 1152 | 914 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 52.5 | 47.1 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 24.7 | 24.5 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 36.9 | 31.1 |
| Bear | 24.4 | 26.7 | |
| US$-WSJ | 96.7 | 96.3 | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 72 | 59 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekLate | .3B |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (2B) | (17.4B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | ||
| 10-yr Tsy yield | hi= stock buying | 1.55% | 1.36% |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.67% | 0.60% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 116.3 | 117.5 |
Monday, July 11, 2016
WHO'S THE PATSY?
At the table? Trying to compete with AI microsecond trading by computers, Institutions with huge databases at their disposal, hedge funds, et.al. - it looks like the small investor is! The best we can do is try to follow the Trend.
Although that trend looks appealing right now, many sage investors- Gundlach, Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, and now even Goldman Sachs- are calling for at least a correction @ 10%.
Last week's post-holiday rally pushed my cumulative Advance/Decline number to a record high (although the McClellan Summation is not there); the NYSE new highs to lows were @10:1;
mutual fund cash pulled a large reversal to the outflow side.
Gold and Silver have rallied a lot this year, and could benefit more from NIRP (negative interest rates) after a possible correction.
Here are the numbers:
Although that trend looks appealing right now, many sage investors- Gundlach, Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, and now even Goldman Sachs- are calling for at least a correction @ 10%.
Last week's post-holiday rally pushed my cumulative Advance/Decline number to a record high (although the McClellan Summation is not there); the NYSE new highs to lows were @10:1;
mutual fund cash pulled a large reversal to the outflow side.
Gold and Silver have rallied a lot this year, and could benefit more from NIRP (negative interest rates) after a possible correction.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 7/8/2016 | 7/1/2016 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 18146 | 17949 |
| NAZ | 4956 | 4862 | |
| SPX | 2129 | 2102 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 7.1/3.8 * | 10.6/5.7 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.87 | 1.86 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 64 | 64 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 13.2 | 14.8 | |
| DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 55% | 52% |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2073/1067 | 2504/653 | |
| Weekly Net: | 1006 | 1851 | |
| Cumulative: | 169671nh | 168665 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 564/62 | 587/159 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 242/116 | 205/277 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 49 | 46 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 914 | 815 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 47.1 | 41.6 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 24.5 | 23.8 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 31.1 | 28.9 |
| Bear | 26.7 | 33.4 | |
| US$-WSJ | 96.3 | 95.6 | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 59 | 52 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekLate | (7.0B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (17.4B) | 14.9B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 451B | |
| 10-yr Tsy yield | hi= stock buying | 1.36% | 1.44% |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.60% | 0.60% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 117.5 | 116.8 |
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
JASON - OH, THE HORROR!
As we end the 4th of July weekend, we enter JASON in the stock market: July through November. If history be our guide, the (legal) Insider Trading chart does not bode well for this underperforming semi-annual cycle. Previous tops of high selling by corporate Insiders came in July of last year, October, and this past April.
A longer chart shows households with an above average percentage of stock holdings, which could lead to an underperforming next decade; especially after the Fed-led rally of the past one. Another negative is my new Sentiment Indicator - the Delta MSI (market sentiment) - showing just above 50% of stocks on a Buy signal (Moving Averages). This mirrors its sibling the Bullish % with the same number (see below).
Other standouts are the 2 and 10-year Treasuries yields dropping; the TIP Inflation ETF at a recent high of almost 117 (123 is the long term high); and on the Bullish case, the AAII Bears dominate the Bulls 33 to 29.
Here are the numbers:
A longer chart shows households with an above average percentage of stock holdings, which could lead to an underperforming next decade; especially after the Fed-led rally of the past one. Another negative is my new Sentiment Indicator - the Delta MSI (market sentiment) - showing just above 50% of stocks on a Buy signal (Moving Averages). This mirrors its sibling the Bullish % with the same number (see below).
Other standouts are the 2 and 10-year Treasuries yields dropping; the TIP Inflation ETF at a recent high of almost 117 (123 is the long term high); and on the Bullish case, the AAII Bears dominate the Bulls 33 to 29.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 7/1/2016 | 6/24/2016 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 17949 | 17400 |
| NAZ | 4862 | 4708 | |
| SPX | 2102 | 2037 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 10.6/5.7 | 10.6/6.0 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.86 | 1.77 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 64 | 74 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 14.8 | 25.8 | |
| DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 52% | 62% |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2504/653 | 1243/1916 | |
| Weekly Net: | 1851 | -673 | |
| Cumulative: | 168665 | 166814 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 587/159 | 391/73 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 205/277 | 167/194 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 46 | -21 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 815 | 772 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 41.6 | 47.5 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 23.8 | 23.2 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 28.9 | 22 |
| Bear | 33.4 | 35.2 | |
| US$-WSJ | 95.6 | 95.5 | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 52 | 60 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekLate | (4.2B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 14.9B | (3.6B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 451B | |
| 10-yr Tsy yield | hi= stock buying | 1.44% | 1.56% |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.60% | 0.63% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 116.8 | 115.8 |