LUNAR TUNES

So this is why they call this time of year "FALL". First week of Autumn, Lunar equinox - Red Moon. Where's the FED when we need them now? Shorting the market?

Time to hedge the downside for stocks, or bail out crying like John Boehner. Even CalSTRS, the second biggest pension fund is selling 12% of its 55% in stocks to hedge Risk, and buy Treasurys (???). Even the best analysts are mixed in future direction: Laszlo Birinyi sees the S&P 500 - 80% of stocks- up 50% in 2 years; Sam Stoval of Standard and Poor's says a bit further down (to Support) then up.

At a TSAA (Technical Securities) Saturday at GGUniv. 50-year veteran Peter Eliades, is calling for an ugly BEAR market, with the May 21 high in the S&P 500 of 2130 a long term Cycle top. Like most cycle theory, market turns (up or down) are Observable but not Actionable with real money!!

The Sentiment table below shows some changes on Indicators that have not been too reliable recently - Commodity Traders, etc. Last week shows indecision in the newsletter surveys; Insider trading picked up again, after a hiatus recently: from single digit selling (to 1 buyer) up to 50:1. Money Market cash reversed again into buying. Finally, Breadth (advances over declines, new highs over new lows) reversed week over week bigtime.
Here are the numbers.

Date>		9/25/2015	9/18/2015
Indices:	DJIA	16314	16384
	NAZ	4686	4827
	SPX	1931	1958
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	n/a	9.6/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		n/a	1.63
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	72	81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		23.6	22.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1057/2179	1771/1459
Weekly Net:		-1122	312
Cumulative:		158274	159396
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	53/453	73/260
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	94/347	143/191
McClellan	Oscillator	-10	28
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-365	-377
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	26	26.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	30.2	26.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.1	33.3
	Bear	28.7	29.1
US$-WSJ		88.9	87.9
CEOinsider	selling	.50:1	.7:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-		43
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	week delay	(3.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	14B	(16.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	473B	AUG.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1275/509/321	JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.70%	0.69%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	110.1	111.2

AUTUMN "LEAVES"

Autumn is here - the worst part of the Stock market Annual cycle, which I've (TM) called JASON - July through November. Over several decades the difference is humungous between the two semi-annual cycles, with November-May up big and its complement period actually Negative. So I try to stay out of any new market positions (the trade used to be in Bonds for 6 months).Now I just Hedge what I have.

Technician Alert: this Wednesday is named GANN Day, for W.D. Gann, who opined that the 23rd of Sept. is the Autumnal Equinox, , most frequent day for market Tops, per Barron's. Seems a little late this year.

Barron Waste: Since March of this year I've tracked over 50 of Barron's super picks !! - Exactly half are down so far, with major moves also equal both ways - the S&P 500 is down only 30 points from March, despite current correction. Can you say "Dartboard?"

Sentiment-wise: Very few extremes in my Indicators, despite the Volatility (VIX); the CBOE put to call ratio is high (Bullish FOR the market) at 81; Breadth is mixed - Advance/Declining stocks slightly up, New Highs to Lows negative, with Volume high.

Newsletters of Bulls to Bears went from a rare inverted state to about equal. Insider selling is very weak, but MMFs selling (money market) is large. Next week should be stock mutual fund monthly stats.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		9/18/2015	9/11/2015
Indices:	DJIA	16384	16433
	NAZ	4827	4822
	SPX	1958	1961
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.6/5.9	7.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.63	2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	81	73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		22.3	23.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1771/1459	1808/1409
Weekly Net:		312	399
Cumulative:		159396	159084
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	73/260	45/217
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	143/191	95/146
McClellan	Oscillator	28	15
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-377	-522
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	26.8	25.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	26.8	27.9
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.3	34.7
	Bear	29.1	35.0
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	17k/(86k)	15k/(95k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(33k)	(56k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	(239k)	(227k)
US$-WSJ		87.9	88.3
CEOinsider	selling	.7:1	.12:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s
3-box rev	Bullish%-	43	36
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(3.2B)	week delay
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.2B)	(15.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	505B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1250/514/314
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.69%	0.71%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.2	111.0

CONTRARIAN WEEK

This week's Sentiment Standouts are about caution from the weaker hands in the stock market:
Both Bull/Bear surveys that we follow reversed last week - the Investors' Intelligence and AAII- to slightly in the Bears favor. Also, the S&P 500 Futures traders saw Large Traders long 15k; Small ones short 95k contracts - more than last week. Per Barron's, Short Interest on the NYSE jumped 5%, although the SPY ETF leapt 20% in its short interest.
Money continues to flow out of both MMFs and equity mutual funds. Here are the numbers:

Date>		9/11/2015	9/4/2015
Indices:	DJIA	16433	16102
	NAZ	4822	4683
	SPX	1961	1921
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.2/3.6	9.3/5.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2	1.82
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	73	73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		23.2	27.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1808/1409	857/2373
Weekly Net:		399	-1516
Cumulative:		159084	158685
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	45/217	25/227
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	95/146	54/164
McClellan	Oscillator	15	0
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-522	-583
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	25.7	27.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	27.9	26.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	34.7	32.4
	Bear	35.0	31.7
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	15k/(95k)	10k/(75k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(56k)	(69k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	(227k)	(219k)
US$-WSJ		88.3	89.0
CEOinsider	selling	.12:1	.9:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s		discont.
3-box rev	Bullish%-	36	38
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	week delay	1.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(15.6B)	(16.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		487B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.71%	0.71%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.0	110.9

WHY I LOVE HOLIDAYS

Because the market cannot go down!!
According to what I read from my favorite research sources - Bespoke, Sam Stovall of S&P IQ, Dave Rosenberg - we are not through with the market correction - the first one in 4 years. Historically, it could last @ 3 more weeks, or through September, based on studies of corrections back to 1926.
The good news is that when Sept.1 was down more than 1%, the remaining drop was @2% - when August was also down (as it was this year), it is more like a 4% drop. Worst case is just below 15,000  on the DJIA 30, or 20% from its highs.
Two things are troubling - market Breadth - advancing and declining stocks, new highs, etc. crashed down recently to the 5th Standard Deviation (around 98%) for the first time since I was two years old!!
Also, per 60 Minutes report Int'l hacking is getting extreme, to where we could expect a shutdown of the Utility and/or Financial grids from foreign hackers.

Last week's New Highs over Lows was almost 10 to 1, actually an improvement from the previous week of only 18 versus 1456! MMF flows (money markets) reversed to withdrawals from increases; stock mutual funds are still experiencing withdrawals as well.

S&P futures Large traders (smart money (??) was plus 10k, while small traders were shorting 75k, a huge number. Also dramatic, for what it is worth, is CEO Insider Selling of their corporate stock - 3 to 1 over buyers; usually it is in the 30-40:1 range - it was 180:1 sellers in July!

For the numbers go to mktsentiment.blogspot.com

Here are the numbers:

Date>		9/4/2015	8/28/2015
Indices:	DJIA	16102	16643
	NAZ	4683	4828
	SPX	1921	1988
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.3/5.1	12.9/6.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.82	1.98
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	73	78
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		27.8	26.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		857/2373	1584/1678
Weekly Net:		-1516	-94
Cumulative:		158685	160201
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	25/227	18/1456
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	54/164	57/903
McClellan	Oscillator	0	21
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-583	-612
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	27.8	31.6
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	26.8	22.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.4	32.5
	Bear	31.7	38.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10k/(75k)	10k/(56k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(69k)	(62k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	(219k)	215
US$-WSJ		89.0	88.5
CEOinsider	selling	.9:1	.3:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	discont.
3-box rev	Bullish%-	38	31
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekDelay	(9.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.1B)	9.0B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	487B	JULY
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1275/509/321	JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.71%	0.72%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	110.9	111.7

COMCAST DOWN ALL DAY

No TV, Internet, phone all day on Monday.
Notable Sentiment standouts for last week: higher Volume, superlow Insider Selling to Buying - 3 to 1, lowest in several years. Whatever that means!!
New highs and lows also near record levels of only 18 highs, 1,456 lows - see below:

Date>		8/28/2015	8/21/2015
Indices:	DJIA	16643	16459
	NAZ	4828	4706
	SPX	1988	1970
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	12.9/6.5	9.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.98	2.13
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	78	84
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		26.1	28
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1584/1678	384/2878
Weekly Net:		-94	-2494
Cumulative:		160201	160295
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	18/1456	143/697
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	57/903	153/468
McClellan	Oscillator	21	-71
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-612	-392
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	31.6	37.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	22.5	18.4
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.5	26.8
	Bear	38.3	33.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10k/(56k)	13k/(33k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(62k)	(30k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	215	(214k)
US$-WSJ		88.5	87.8
CEOinsider	selling	.3:1	.15:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s		discont.
3-box rev	Bullish%-	31	44
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekDelay	(5.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	9.0B	11.0B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	487B	505B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1275/509/321	1250/514/314
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.72%	0.62%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.7	112.2