| Date> | DECADE | HI | LOW |
| Indices: | DJIA | 15658 | 6626 |
| NAZ | 3943 | 1114 | |
| SPX | 1759 | 683 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | |||
| NASD/NYSE | |||
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 3.15 | 1.59 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 104.11/08 | 42 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 90 | 8.8 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | |||
| Weekly Net: | |||
| Cumulative: | 154367 | 71464 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 950 | 18 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | ||
| McClellan | Oscillator | Jan.'09:108 | May.'12:(110) |
| McClellan Sum | .+750/-1000 | 1568-6/03 | (1514). |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 62.9-12/04 | 22.2-10/08 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 54.4-10/08 | 15.6 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | (12/10)63.3 | ||
| Bear | 70.3(3/09) | 16.4 | |
| COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | ||
| CEOinsider | selling | 235:1 | .2.1 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 88 | 2 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | ||
| MMF flows | Change in $B | ||
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 384B-May'13 | |
| ETF:Eqty/ | Int'l/Bond | 925/349/257 | |
This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.
Monday, October 28, 2013
MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AND LOWS:
Before viewing this week's Sentiment numbers, here is the multi-year highs and lows for each:
WINTER IS ACUMEN IN:
As the cumulus clouds accumulate for the winter, so do the worry clouds of Sentiment gather!
The excellent commentary from Barron's and elsewhere combine with the Sentiment Indicators to cause concern about the future:
Margin Debt, which is stated monthly, is at record high, as traders use low interest rates to escape zirp (zero rates); Barron's Big Money poll of their expert money managers shows only 8% are Bearish, as Insider Selling stays at high levels with key employes/officers sell their company stock.
It has been over 500 days since the market has had a meaningful correction - not the longest, as stretches of twice and thrice that have occurred recently - ending in catastrophes of 2000 and 2008.
Money is racing into tech stocks like 1999 - PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, etc., as well as into unproven IPOs. Research charts I've saved show that the 1% of the rich versus everyone else is the highest since 1929; likewise, national debt to GDP is worse than 1929. With the Boomers retiring for the next two decades and the U.S. birthrate (as well as net immigration) declining, GDP looks to worsen to 2% or below, per national studies. Unemployment remains high, especially among the young, who are counted on to replenish Social Security and other entitlements (Obamacare), along with immigrants who are also low-earners.
Finally, my cycle work shows the 4-year President cycle tends consistently to sell off the second year of the election cycle (2014) as it has since WWII.
Here are the numbers:
The excellent commentary from Barron's and elsewhere combine with the Sentiment Indicators to cause concern about the future:
Margin Debt, which is stated monthly, is at record high, as traders use low interest rates to escape zirp (zero rates); Barron's Big Money poll of their expert money managers shows only 8% are Bearish, as Insider Selling stays at high levels with key employes/officers sell their company stock.
It has been over 500 days since the market has had a meaningful correction - not the longest, as stretches of twice and thrice that have occurred recently - ending in catastrophes of 2000 and 2008.
Money is racing into tech stocks like 1999 - PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, etc., as well as into unproven IPOs. Research charts I've saved show that the 1% of the rich versus everyone else is the highest since 1929; likewise, national debt to GDP is worse than 1929. With the Boomers retiring for the next two decades and the U.S. birthrate (as well as net immigration) declining, GDP looks to worsen to 2% or below, per national studies. Unemployment remains high, especially among the young, who are counted on to replenish Social Security and other entitlements (Obamacare), along with immigrants who are also low-earners.
Finally, my cycle work shows the 4-year President cycle tends consistently to sell off the second year of the election cycle (2014) as it has since WWII.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 10/25/2013 | 10/18/2013 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 15570 | 15400 |
| NAZ | 3943 | 3914 | |
| SPX | 1759 | 1744 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | 9.6/3.5 | 8.8/3.7 | |
| NASD/NYSE | |||
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.74 | 2.38 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 58 | 54 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 13.1 | 13 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2047/1145 | 2539/642 | |
| Weekly Net: | 902 | 1897 | |
| Cumulative: | 154367 | 153465 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 688/40 | 581/125 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 681/64 | 576/59 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 46 | 62 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 513 | 257 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 49.5 | 42.3 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 18.5 | 21.6 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | *49.2 | 46.3 | |
| Bear | **17.6 | 24.9 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 8/15 | gov't |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (78K) | shutdown |
| CEOinsider | selling | 41:1 | 38:1 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 81 | 80 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | WeekDelay |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 54B | (52B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | *10 mo.hi | |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | **21 mo.low | |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.31% | 0.32% | |
Monday, October 21, 2013
J A S O N
Once again the Hallowe'en specter of JASON is almost past us: J-une through N-ovember! Historically this is the worse semi-annual cycle by far, compared to its complementary cycle. This year, despite the Walls of Worry we've been through, it wasn't that bad. The markets basically ignored the Divine Comedy of our government histrionics.
Now we seem to be in the sweet spot - the "Taper" has been put off by the postponements, and we enter the best months - Nov.- Jan. Speaking of cycles, one of the most reliable since WWII has been the 4- year Presidential, or Kinchen cycle - e.g. 2014, where there has always been a severe selloff (except for 1986, which was delayed until 1987 !!!). This is also an Election year.
Sentiment extremes this week include the massive outflows from MMFs - $52B, much into equity funds. "Legal" Insider Selling still remains high, versus Buying; and the McClellan Oscillator is now overbought at +62 with a 10:1 New Hi/Lo ratio on the NAS. Both the VIX and CBOE put/call ratios dropped into neutral.
Here are the numbers:
Now we seem to be in the sweet spot - the "Taper" has been put off by the postponements, and we enter the best months - Nov.- Jan. Speaking of cycles, one of the most reliable since WWII has been the 4- year Presidential, or Kinchen cycle - e.g. 2014, where there has always been a severe selloff (except for 1986, which was delayed until 1987 !!!). This is also an Election year.
Sentiment extremes this week include the massive outflows from MMFs - $52B, much into equity funds. "Legal" Insider Selling still remains high, versus Buying; and the McClellan Oscillator is now overbought at +62 with a 10:1 New Hi/Lo ratio on the NAS. Both the VIX and CBOE put/call ratios dropped into neutral.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 10/18/2013 | 10/11/2013 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 15400 | 15237 |
| NAZ | 3914 | 3791 | |
| SPX | 1744 | 1703 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | 8.8/3.7 | 9.3/3.4 | |
| NASD/NYSE | 2.38 | ||
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.74 | ||
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 54 | 65 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 13 | 15.7 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2539/642 | 1784/1393 | |
| Weekly Net: | 1897 | 391 | |
| Cumulative: | 153465 | 151568 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 581/125 | 260/168 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 576/59 | 278/88 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 62 | 11 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 257 | 123 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 42.3 | 45.4 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 21.6 | 20.6 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 46.3 | 41.3 | |
| Bear | 24.9 | 25.1 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | gov't | 11/14 |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | shutdown | -72 |
| CEOinsider | selling | 38:1 | 42:1 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 80 | 76 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | (5.2B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (52B) | (19.8B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | ||
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | ||
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.32% | 0.36% | |
Monday, October 14, 2013
SAME OLD SAME OLD
Although there was some Volatility while I was enjoying the liquid sunshine in San Diego, the two weeks of market action and Sentiment Indicator movement was rather benign. O-Bomb-A (the Nobel Peace Prize winner) and Hairy Reed moved Bo-ner to tears several times, but the markets wound up about where they left off in Sept.
The late Bullish surge took the VIX down and the specu ratio of Nasd to NYSE Volume up; the huge Insider Selling of two weeks ago at 180:1 over Buyers ameliorated to only 42:1. Commercials selling Gold remains high, @ 70k contracts in the COT tables. And MMF flows were out for the two weeks, after being inflows of $36B before.
Here are the numbers:
The late Bullish surge took the VIX down and the specu ratio of Nasd to NYSE Volume up; the huge Insider Selling of two weeks ago at 180:1 over Buyers ameliorated to only 42:1. Commercials selling Gold remains high, @ 70k contracts in the COT tables. And MMF flows were out for the two weeks, after being inflows of $36B before.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 10/11/2013 | 10/3/2013 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 15237 | 15066 |
| NAZ | 3791 | 3807 | |
| SPX | 1703 | 1690 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | 9.3/3.4 | 8.8/3.6 | |
| NASD/NYSE | |||
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.74 | 2.44 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 65 | 63 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 15.7 | 16.7 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1784/1393 | 1502/1673 | |
| Weekly Net: | 391 | -171 | |
| Cumulative: | 151568 | 151177 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 260/168 | 342/118 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 278/88 | 414/68 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 11 | -26 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 123 | 289 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 45.4 | 46.4 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 20.6 | 18.6 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 41.3 | 37.8 | |
| Bear | 25.1 | 30.1 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 11/14 | 16/(25) |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | -72 | -68 |
| CEOinsider | selling | 42:1 | n/a |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 76 | 78 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | (4.1B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (19.8B) | (8.5B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | ||
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | ||
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.36% | 0.33% | |
Friday, October 4, 2013
VACATION EDITION
This week's blog is incomplete due to early takeoff for vacation to San Diego. My cousin, who loves there, is a V.P. at J P Morgan, so I hope to get some gossip on Jamie Dimon's exit from the bank side of JPM.
Despite all the global turmoil, markets and Sentiment still pretty mild - wait 'til next week!
Here are the numbers that are out - rest tbd later, as well as next week's:
Despite all the global turmoil, markets and Sentiment still pretty mild - wait 'til next week!
Here are the numbers that are out - rest tbd later, as well as next week's:
| Date> | 10/3/2013 | 9/27/2013 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 15066 | 15258 |
| NAZ | 3807 | 3781 | |
| SPX | 1690 | 1691 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | 8.8/3.3 | ||
| NASD/NYSE | tbd | 2.67 | |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | |||
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 61 | |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 15.5 | ||
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1472/1709 | ||
| Weekly Net: | -234 | ||
| Cumulative: | 151348 | ||
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 294/98 | |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 372/71 | |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -26 | 5 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 289 | 302 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 46.4 | n/a |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 18.6 | n/a |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 37.8 | 36.1 | |
| Bear | 30.1 | 30.6 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 11/14 | |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | -72 | |
| CEOinsider | selling | 180:1 | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 78 | 79 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1weeklag | xxxx |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (8.5B) | 36B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 383B | |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | ||
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.33% | 0.34% | |