| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 12220 | 11858 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2743 | 2643 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1313 | 1279 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 56 | 73 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 17.9 | 24.4 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | 24 | (26) | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 426 | 386 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 50.6 | 52.2 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 22.4 | 22.3 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 37.7 | 28.5 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 35 | 40.1 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (1.3B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (7.8B) | (10.5B) | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1538 | 1317 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 77 | 72 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 23:1 | 55:1 | 198:1 | 2.4:1 |
This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.
Monday, March 28, 2011
RUNNING OF THE BULLS:
Several Indicators last week were nearing high levels of Bullishness "ON" the market (Bearish for it): the ratio of Volume on the NYSE vs. Nasdaq was near its speculative highs; the Inv.Intell. Bulls rose above 50, vs. 22 Bears; Margin Debt is huge - above $300B last seen at a previous market top ; others - VIX, McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, not quite extreme yet but getting there:
Monday, March 21, 2011
SENTIMENTAL JOURNAL:
MktSentiment is entering its 6th year of publication, concentrating on the most effective of stock market Sentiment Indicators over time. Although the author received his CMT designation (Chartered Market Technician) in 1995 on the subject of Sentiment, he has only kept a weekly record for 10 years, sometimes replacing ineffective or obsolete Indicators with new ones after sufficient testing.
He has recently compiled a record of the 5 best Indicators shown on the tsaasf.org website (for which he is the Editor and Past President). This blog is produced each Monday, as many indicators (such as market survey letters) are posted weekly. Extremes can be used as a cautionary signal, as they can denote a cessation of a trend, not necessarily a reversal.
Last week's extremes include a high CBOE equity put/call ratio of 73; a negative McClellan Oscillator (although it stayed the same as the prior week at -26, it took a violent swing down and up); the AAII (Individual Investor) Bears jumped from 32 to 40 last week, although the Investors' Intelligence Bulls remained complacent. Technically, I like to watch the 6 to8-day cycles (3,4 up, 3,4 down) as we reach the 50-day Simple Moving Average today.
Posted below are the last two weeks, multi-year highs and lows:
He has recently compiled a record of the 5 best Indicators shown on the tsaasf.org website (for which he is the Editor and Past President). This blog is produced each Monday, as many indicators (such as market survey letters) are posted weekly. Extremes can be used as a cautionary signal, as they can denote a cessation of a trend, not necessarily a reversal.
Last week's extremes include a high CBOE equity put/call ratio of 73; a negative McClellan Oscillator (although it stayed the same as the prior week at -26, it took a violent swing down and up); the AAII (Individual Investor) Bears jumped from 32 to 40 last week, although the Investors' Intelligence Bulls remained complacent. Technically, I like to watch the 6 to8-day cycles (3,4 up, 3,4 down) as we reach the 50-day Simple Moving Average today.
Posted below are the last two weeks, multi-year highs and lows:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 11858 | 12044 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2643 | 2715 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1279 | 1304 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 73 | 64 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 24.4 | 20.1 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (26) | (26) | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 386 | 669 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 52.2 | 52.2 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 22.3 | 21.1 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 28.5 | 36.0 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 40.1 | 32.3 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (1.1B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (10.5B) | (1.4B) | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1538 | 1317 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 72 | 77 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 55:1 | 62:1 | 198:1 | 2.4:1 |
Monday, March 14, 2011
THE FAB FIVE:
As mentioned in the past few weeks, the top 5 Sentiment Indicators have been very reliable in calling for this downturn, just as they have in my recent 10-year Indicator Wrapup. They are: CBOE Equity put/call ratio being near its multi-year low; the McClellan Oscillator approaching a +50 level; the AAII Bull/Bear ratio signaling complacency; the Bullish Per Cent at all-time highs of 89; and the VIX being at a complacent low -more of a longer term danger signal.
These fab five compare closely with the levels last April 23, just before the Flash Crash of 17%.
These fab five compare closely with the levels last April 23, just before the Flash Crash of 17%.
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 12044 | 12169 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2715 | 2784 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1304 | 1321 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 64 | 56 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 20.1 | 19.1 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (26) | (22) | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 669 | 778 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 52.2 | 50.6 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 21.1 | 19.5 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 36.0 | 36.8 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 32.3 | 33.2 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (3.1B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (1.4B) | .5B | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1538 | 1317 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 77 | 83 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 62:1 | 23:1 | 198:1 | 2.4:1 |
Monday, March 7, 2011
SAME OL', SAME OL':
Just as the market went sideways after the fall last week, so did the Indicators - almost not even worth posting. The McClellan Oscillator went negative (-22), Inv.Intell. is still complacent, and the margin debt increased on its way to $300B.
For what it's worth, the AAII is above average in investment in stocks (63%), but has the lowest % in Bonds (17%) since Aug. '09, which was a previous low in the long bond.
For what it's worth, the AAII is above average in investment in stocks (63%), but has the lowest % in Bonds (17%) since Aug. '09, which was a previous low in the long bond.
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 12169 | 12130 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2784 | 2781 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1321 | 1319 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 56 | 66 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 19.1 | 19.2 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (22) | 3 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 778 | 753 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 50.6 | 53.3 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 19.5 | 18.9 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 36.8 | 36.6 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 33.2 | 36.2 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | 1.5B | ||
| Money Market Flows | .5B | (5.1B) | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1317 | 1301 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 83 | 83 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 23:1 | 94:1 | 198:1 | 2.4:1 |