Since I am leaving for a two-week vacation tomorrow, Sentiment results are effective Thursday (as if Friday were a Holiday).Still complacent, but backing off a bit, the AAII Bull/Bear numbers (out on Wednesdays of each week) were 45 to 25.4%; the Inv.Intell., out on Tues.., were not updated yet.
Thursday closes were slightly higher than the week before.
Mutual funds flows were still Outflows - $3.6B with a week lag of data. Bullish % climbed to 62%, getting a bit overbought.
This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
DANCING WITH THE TSARS:
DIS-Appointment?: Apparently recent Presidents believe that they can bypass Congress by setting up unvoted-on offices, such as Liz Warren's new position. Although she may be a brilliant and dedicated person, the idea of more gov't is grist for the Constitutionalists' Mill.
Autumn leaves may turn to Tea leaves in November.
Meanwhile, nothing upsets the market's proclivity to undermine the September curse (so far) - October may be a different animal. Volume, which, for some reason is never tracked on CNBC,Bloomie, got back to normal last week, thanks to option expiry, which is also rarely mentioned as having an effect on markets.
Most Sentiment Indicators were benign, with the exception of the AAII Bull/Bear ratio, which comes out on Wednesdays - it flashed a 50.9% Bulls, which is getting complacent - while the complementary Bears dropped 7% to 24.3.
Corporate (legal) Insider Selling jumped by a factor of 6 times the total of 2 weeks ago. MMF flows also leapt from $10B Inflow to a negative $25B outflow - most likely to Emerging markets and fixed income.
Here are the numbers:
Autumn leaves may turn to Tea leaves in November.
Meanwhile, nothing upsets the market's proclivity to undermine the September curse (so far) - October may be a different animal. Volume, which, for some reason is never tracked on CNBC,Bloomie, got back to normal last week, thanks to option expiry, which is also rarely mentioned as having an effect on markets.
Most Sentiment Indicators were benign, with the exception of the AAII Bull/Bear ratio, which comes out on Wednesdays - it flashed a 50.9% Bulls, which is getting complacent - while the complementary Bears dropped 7% to 24.3.
Corporate (legal) Insider Selling jumped by a factor of 6 times the total of 2 weeks ago. MMF flows also leapt from $10B Inflow to a negative $25B outflow - most likely to Emerging markets and fixed income.
Here are the numbers:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 10607 | 10462 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2315 | 2242 | 2805 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1125 | 1109 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 57 | 61 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 22.0 | 22.0 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | 25 | 43 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 695 | 502 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 36.7 | 33.3 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 31.1 | 32.2 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 50.9 | 43.9 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 24.3 | 31.6 | n/a | n/a |
| Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | n/a | n/a | 2.2 | 0.56 |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (2.2B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (24.6B) | 10.6B | ||
| ETF equity:Monthly Totals | n/a | n/a | n/a | |
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2737 | 2995 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 57 | 52 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 32:1 | 21:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
Monday, September 13, 2010
Thank Goodness It's Fall!:
Contrarian's Delight - Media hype is that September (and October) are the worst times for stocks. So far...so good. On the worst Volume and smallest indices moves in awhile - Sentiment Indicators were jumping all around last week, as we approached the top of the 1025-1125 S&P500 Trading Range.
Thanks to Labor Day and Rosh Hashana, trading was weak, but mostly positive.
My cumulative A/D went to another new high, as did NYSE new highs - much of which are bond-like securities (Pfds, CEFs, ETFs); but the Nasdaq new hi's/lo's inverted positive.
Newsletter surveys went Bearish FOR the market, especially the AAII ratio.
And CEO Insider Selling quadrupled to 21:1, but exchanges Short Interest shot up @5%.
The BDI, or Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for the global economy, hit a 3-month high, as did the WIP, the World Inflation Index.
Finally, large numbers of $$ flowed out of domestic equity mutual funds and into MMFs.
After next week I shall be vacationing with family in SoCal, so the blog will be temporarily interrupted.
When returning, I have been invited to speak to the Silicon Valley Option Group on Oct.13, at the San Jose Embassy Suites, and also a Marin investor group.
Topic will be my DITM, or Deep-In-The-Money option strategy which has performed very well in this economy - I shall also be starting a new blog citing the actual trading results since its inception in 2009: very close to the historic 100-year stock market average of 10%, when markets are now still at 1998 levels!
Here are a couple of recent results with opening date, Symbol and Total Net Return :
7/14/2010 PFE 19.07%
10/29/09 DD 8.70%
2/26/10 MRK 11.4%
And here are the Sentiment Indicators:
Thanks to Labor Day and Rosh Hashana, trading was weak, but mostly positive.
My cumulative A/D went to another new high, as did NYSE new highs - much of which are bond-like securities (Pfds, CEFs, ETFs); but the Nasdaq new hi's/lo's inverted positive.
Newsletter surveys went Bearish FOR the market, especially the AAII ratio.
And CEO Insider Selling quadrupled to 21:1, but exchanges Short Interest shot up @5%.
The BDI, or Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for the global economy, hit a 3-month high, as did the WIP, the World Inflation Index.
Finally, large numbers of $$ flowed out of domestic equity mutual funds and into MMFs.
After next week I shall be vacationing with family in SoCal, so the blog will be temporarily interrupted.
When returning, I have been invited to speak to the Silicon Valley Option Group on Oct.13, at the San Jose Embassy Suites, and also a Marin investor group.
Topic will be my DITM, or Deep-In-The-Money option strategy which has performed very well in this economy - I shall also be starting a new blog citing the actual trading results since its inception in 2009: very close to the historic 100-year stock market average of 10%, when markets are now still at 1998 levels!
Here are a couple of recent results with opening date, Symbol and Total Net Return :
7/14/2010 PFE 19.07%
10/29/09 DD 8.70%
2/26/10 MRK 11.4%
And here are the Sentiment Indicators:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 10462 | 10447 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2242 | 2133 | 2805 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1109 | 1104 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 61 | 58 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 22.0 | 21.3 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | 43 | 48 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 502 | 376 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 33.3 | 29.4 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 32.2 | 37.7 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 43.9 | 30.8 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 31.6 | 42.2 | n/a | n/a |
| Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | n/a | n/a | 2.2 | 0.56 |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (7.6B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | 10.6B | (6.2B) | ||
| ETF equity:Monthly Totals | n/a | n/a | n/a | |
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2995 | 2835 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 52 | 49 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 21:1 | 5:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
Monday, September 6, 2010
NONLABOR DAY:
With investors not yet back to work (those that still have jobs), no pattern is yet visible for the future - as we continue in the bounded Trading Range. Volume is still low, mostly from HFTs (high frequency traders) who never vacation.
My cumulative A/D total hit a record high, but as the disputers of the Hindenburg Omen state, much of the NYSE Advance/Decline total is comprised of bond-like Pfds, CEFs and ETFs - the Nasdaq New Highs to New Lows remains negative.
Both Bull/Bear surveys remain Bullishly inverted, although with the Inv.Intell., which comes out on Tuesdays, Bulls fell 4 points to 29.4 - the AAII survey, which comes out on Wednesdays, saw the Bulls number rise a full 10 points to 30.8.
Money left MMFs for the first time in a couple months, but probably is going into Fixed Income, as the 1-week lagging Equity number remains negative.
Key officers' Insider Selling is 1/10 of what it was earlier in the Summer.
Finally, a short term negative: the McClellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted) reached my top zone of 48 .
Here are the numbers:
My cumulative A/D total hit a record high, but as the disputers of the Hindenburg Omen state, much of the NYSE Advance/Decline total is comprised of bond-like Pfds, CEFs and ETFs - the Nasdaq New Highs to New Lows remains negative.
Both Bull/Bear surveys remain Bullishly inverted, although with the Inv.Intell., which comes out on Tuesdays, Bulls fell 4 points to 29.4 - the AAII survey, which comes out on Wednesdays, saw the Bulls number rise a full 10 points to 30.8.
Money left MMFs for the first time in a couple months, but probably is going into Fixed Income, as the 1-week lagging Equity number remains negative.
Key officers' Insider Selling is 1/10 of what it was earlier in the Summer.
Finally, a short term negative: the McClellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted) reached my top zone of 48 .
Here are the numbers:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 10447 | 10150 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2233 | 2153 | 2805 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1104 | 1064 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 58 | 58 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 21.3 | 24.4 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | 48 | (15) | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 376 | 371 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 29.4 | 33.3 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 37.7 | 31.2 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 30.8 | 20.7 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 42.2 | 49.5 | n/a | n/a |
| Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | n/a | n/a | 2.2 | 0.56 |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (4.3B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (6.2B) | 3.7BB | ||
| ETF equity:Monthly Totals | n/a | n/a | n/a | |
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2835 | 2703 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 49 | 44 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 5:1 | 8:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |