SWIMSUIT EDITION:

Get your attention? And now for this commercial!!: After many weeks' gestation period the arrival of the Zero (In)Tolerance book by yours truly is about to be born - after the proof is vetted today or tomorrow. It will be available for under $15 at Amazon.com/3431050 (please see www.brentleonard.com for any changes).

As mentioned previously. this book is about a low risk, high return alternative to punitive zero short term rates for prudent investors which look to be with us for an "extended" period.

Bearish sentiment has ameliorated since the recent rally after the 9% downdraft due to the banking crackdown. Outlier extremes include CEO Insider Selling and equity mutual fund outflows increasing. Also, breadth has rebounded nicely with adv/dec. on the NYSE at 5:1 and NY new highs/lows at 342 to 7 last week - and the McClellan Oscillator shot from 1 to over +50, nearing my caution area.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10402	10099	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2243	2183	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1109	1075	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	69	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	20.0	22.7	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	56	1	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	345	154	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	35.6	34.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	27.8	38.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.9	36.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	35.2	41.9	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.50	0.40	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-5.2B
Money Market Flows	-37.7B	-6.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec 777B	Nov 738B
Baltic Dry Index:	2704	2571	11700	663
Bullish %:	69	64	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	35:1	11:1	108:1	2.4:1

CYCLE-LOGICAL:

The recently failed January Barometer - the month of January ending at a loss- is just one piece of a "nesting" of cycles that do not bode well for 2010: the zero year of the Decennial cycle is the worst of the 10, over 11 previous cycles; the Presidential, or 4-year Kitchin cycle has produced a large selloff since WWII; Martin Pring's 18-19 year cycle, which he calls the Lost Decade, as we saw similarly in Japan recently, also sees an alternating Bull to sideways/down cycle going back 200 years.

The good news is (for me) that my book on an alternative investment strategy to zero interest rates - Zero (In)Tolerance  should be ready for publication any day now. Any readers who are "FED" up with the punitive short term rates for retirees, prudent investors - pushing them into riskier investments (see declining Money Market Fund Flows below), might want to check this under-$20 book when released by Amazon's Createspace.com. More info can be had at www.brentleonard.com, also new.

Sentimentally, MMF flows were negative for the 5th week in a row, but for the first time, U.S. Equity flows turned negative, after the recent decline.

Despite the negative 40% of Inv.Intell. people surveyed calling for a correction - first time since 1983, both the I.I. and the AAII remain inverted intheir Bull/Bear ratios - a Bullish sign FOR the market. Also low is the Nova/Ursa fund ratio of longs to shorts.

Here are the numbers:

DJIA:	10099	10012	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2183	2141	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1075	1066	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	69	69	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	22.7	26.1	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	1	-69	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	154	299	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.1	38.9	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	38.9	40.0	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	36.8	29.2	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	41.9	43.1	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.40	0.51	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-2.2B
Money Market Flows	-6.7B	-13.6B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec.777B	Nov.738BB
Baltic Dry Index:	2571	2685	11700	663
Bullish %:	64	64	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	11:1	28:1	108:1	2.4:1

GUNG HAY FAT CHOY:

Year of the Tiger (except for Woods, of course). Along with the New part of New Year, I have a new website: http://www.brentleonard.com, a new email: brentleonard59@gmail.com to replace aol, and a new book, to be published any day now (more found at the website on this).

For the curious, the book - Zero (In)Tolerance- is about an alternative to negative interest rates. If the Fed had lowered to a paltry 3% instead of zero, investors would be happier, would have $150B / year more to "Consume" with, instead of borrowing, and gov't debt - Stimulus - would be much lower.

Only the banks and carry-traders benefited from zero, and if banks are too big to fail, where did the word Bank-rupt come from?

Back to Sentiment - the CBOE Equity put/call ratio rose to a recent record of 69, due to the recent correction; the McClellan Oscillator remains under minus 50, an oversold level. Both surveys became inverted last week, with Bears over Bulls - a good sign for the market.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10012	10067	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2141	2147	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1066	1073	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	69	68	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	26.1	24.6	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-69	-93	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	299	546	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	38.9	40.0	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	40.0	23.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	29.2	35.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	43.1	36.7	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.51	0.68	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag		8.9B
Money Market Flows	-13.6B	-21.9B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec.777B	Nov.738BB
Baltic Dry Index:	2685	3223	11700	663
Bullish %:	64	73	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	28:1	8:1	108:1	2.4:1

NERVOUS BREAKDOWN:

Many of the technicians and media talking heads are focused on the S&P500 Support level of 1085, which we broke through last week. More often than not, once a breakdown occurs through support, a retest to the "Ice" also happens - if it fails, the market recedes still more.

SPECIAL NOTE: Due to the advice of my IT I am changing my email from aol to: brentleonard59@gmail.com.
Please make this change - aol will forward for awhile yet.

Nothing spectacular from the Sentiment world. I did notice the last time the AAII Bears exceeded the Bulls was on Nov.6, the start of a nice rally. Volume picked up to new recent highs, but hardly a climactic capitulation. One other extreme was the McClellan Oscillator at -93, after not following my advice to turn the market up last week - this makes it more serious. Most other Indicators just regressed towards their means.

Here's the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10067	10172	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2147	2205	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1073	1091	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	68	68	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.6	27.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-93	-79	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	546	930	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	40.0	52.2	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.3	18.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.0	40.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	36.7	34.7	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.68	0.79	2.2	0.56
US Equity Flows	1 week lag	1.3B
Money Market Flows	-21.9B	-46.0B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec.777B	Nov.738BB
Baltic Dry Index:	3223	3170	11700	663
Bullish %:	73	77	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	8:1	14:1	108:1	2.4:1