Today's Sentiment posting is in 2 parts, as the new system requires special handling - so here is the commentary for Oct.26:
The stock market has more legs than the Fox Channel, despite today's month-end profit-taking. Although most all foreign money is going into bonds (Treasurys, GSEs, etc.) Trillions are still looking for a home above zero percent, especially with the safety that the U.S. provides.
According to the latest JP Morgan Quarterly booklet in the 4 great Recessions the past century with consecutive declines in the market, all saw highdouble-digit or triple-digit returns following the trough:
Great Depression - down 71%, up 148%
WWII - down 34%, up 100%
1974 Oil Crisis - down 42%, up 57%
Internet Bubble - down 42%, up 67% into 2007
Breadth remains huge,with New Highs outnumbering New Lows on the NYSE 713 to 8!
CEO Insider Selling remains worrisome at 22:1 and the Investors Intelligence Bulls are complacently high at 49; yet the McClellan Oscillator is at its support level of -50.
This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.
Monday, October 26, 2009
HALLOWE'EN:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Year HI | 5 Year LOW |
| DJIA: | 9972 | 9995 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2154 | 2156 | 2126 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1079 | 1087 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 61 | 51 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 22.3 | 21.4 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | -49 | -16 | 108 | -100 |
| McClellan Sum: | 1032 | 1154 | 1568 | -1514 |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
Investors Intel. | ||||
Bull: | 49.5 | 47.2 | 63 | 22.21 |
Bear: | 23.1 | 26.4 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII | ||||
Bull: | 40.5 | 47.3 | n/a | n/a |
Bear: | 35.7 | 33.8 | n/a | n/a |
| Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | 0.63 | 0.74 | 2.2 | 0.56 |
| Baltic Dry Index: | 3043 | 2728 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 84 | 84 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 22:1 | 23:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
| 1-YEAR %: | ||||
| VIX Volatility: | -70 | -22.00 | ||
| VIX 1-month Future: | -58 | -18.00 | ||
| VIX 5-month Future: | -22 | -7 |
Monday, October 19, 2009
Market ZUGZWANG - Or Forced Move (chess term):
Amongst a rather tepid list of Indicators last week, with the VIX at a new recent low and the Bullish % still overbought, the only extremes were a bullish breadth number - the NYSE New Highs at 802 vs. only 6 NLs; the other extreme was, not so much the rise in Insider Selling, from 13:1 to 23:1, but strangely, the number of key officers buying company stock in the Financials, 3/4 of the total buying of all 10 sectors.
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
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| MktSentiment. 10/16/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW DJIA ………. 9995…………9865.………..14093............6626 Nasdaq………. 2156…………2139…………2810.............1114 S&P500…….. 1087…………1076………….1561………..683 CBOE Eq. ..put/call...............................51………….52……..……96….....46 VIX ………. 21.4…………..23.1…….…….90…….….8.8 McClellan Osc………-16……………..7…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1154………..1160………..…....1568-....-1514 Newsletter Surveys: Inv.Intel - Bull:………………….n/a…………n/a.. ………….…63 ……...22.2l Bear:………… .n/a………….n/a……..……… 54.4….......16 AAII-Bull……………47.3…..........35.1 ……Bear ………….…33.8……….41.2 Nova/Ursa MutualFunds………0.74…………0.74…………….2.2……..0.56 Baltic Dry Index ……2728………..2695………….11700………663 Bullish%- …….…84…………..82………….…88…….....2 *Insider corporate sellers. …….. 23:1……….13:1……………108:1…….2.4:1 Mutual Fund Inflows .. n/a |
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Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Weekly results October 13:
Below are this week's Sentiment numbers, after the Holiday and return from vacation:
|
Friday, October 2, 2009
EARLY EDITION -STILL IN PROGRESS
Below is a rough version of the Thursday close (before family vacation) in the new format process . Noticable extremes include the oversold McClellan Oscillator (Tom is bullish on the market due to extreme breadth and liquidity); on the flip side the Bullish per cent gave a 3-box SELL signal and the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio is complacent at 50+.
(Dow, Nasdaq and S&P updated to market close - gort3ster@gmail.com - in Brent's absence - comments/email on format change welcome)
| MktSentiment | 10/02/2009 | Prev. Week | 5 Year HI | 5 Year LOW |
| DJIA: | 9488 | 9665 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2048 | 2090 | 2126 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1025 | 1044 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 74 | 61 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 28.3 | 25.6 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | -68 | -43 | 108 | -100 |
| McClellan Sum: | 1290 | 1426 | 1568 | -1514 |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
Investors Intel. | ||||
Bull: | 50.6 | 46.7 | 63 | 22.21 |
Bear: | 23.6 | 24.4 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII | ||||
Bull: | ||||
Bear: | ||||
| Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | 0.94 | 0.86 | 2.2 | 0.56 |
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2284 | 2163 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 82 | 86 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | n/a | 54:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
| Mutual Fund Inflows: | -1.1B | -0.3B | ||
| ETF Inflows: | 1.5B | 1.5B |