Monday, February 27, 2017

TAKE A HIKE

Since everything Trump is beeyoutiful these days, a possible rate hike by the Fed maybe in the cards for mid-March - a good time to jump into Treasuries at auction (par) if you have some spare cash.
Stocks, however, could be heading for at least a Correction, with consecutive record highs rivaling 1987 !!!!!
Sentiment and Breadth seem equal to the rising market in intensity; Equity flows - funds and ETFs (those traded on exchanges) have been positive since the election (after a brief respite) . They were mostly flowing Out all of 2016 until then.  Margin Debt is spectacularly high -  a danger if stocks start to slide and people/robos have to sell to meet margin calls -Hello!
All else seems stable - Bulls, advance/declines, VIX, but Inflation -as measured by TIPS hit a new high last week. See below:

Date   2/24/2017 2/17/2017
Indices: DJIA  20821 20624
  NAZ  5845 5838
SPX  2367 2351
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.3/3.6 9.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71.9 72.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1763/1334 1606/1501
Weekly Net: 429 105
     Cumulative: 175207 174776
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 449/41 504/33
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 496/95 555/85
McClellan  Oscillator 2 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 812 778
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.2 61.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.5 33.1
Bear  32.1 32.4
US$-WSJ 101.1 100.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  77nh 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 8.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.1B (2.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.15 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.9 114.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 20, 2017

JANET YODA

What comes first - the departure of the current Fed Head or the inevitable Recession, which could be a doozy? For over  a Century, we've had an "R" around the zero year of the decennial cycle, plus or minus a year or so - last one was 2008, after which the Fed dropped interest rates to...Zero and propped up the markets - stock and real estate.
Worries coming up this year (contrary to Janet's hemming and hawing, which talking heads posit that move computer-driven markets) are: NAFTA LA VISTA (coined by Dimitra D. in Barron's this week) , the Border Tax, CalExit, the North Korea "nucular" threat.
Stocks crawled up higher to new records and the VIX (Volatility) stayed low - which unlike high IV could stay that way for a long while ( more from Bill Luby's option column in Barron's). Threats to the market are: Extreme Margin Interest, length of the Bull market, $20T national debt, and some tech valuations.
What could possibly go Rong?
Here are the numbers:
Date 2/17/2017 2/10/2017
Indices: DJIA  20624 20269
NAZ  5838 5734
SPX  2351 2316
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.3 9.3/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.27
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 10.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 72.6 68.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1606/1501 1974/1115
Weekly Net: 105 859
     Cumulative: 174776 174671
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 504/33 379/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 555/85 423/110
McClellan  Oscillator 2 27
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 778 686
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.8 62.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.6 16.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.1 35.8
Bear  32.4 27.7
US$-WSJ 100.9 100.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate .8B
MMF flows Change in $B (2.0B) (3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.2 114.2


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 13, 2017

DIALECTICS

One of the most profound and useful concepts I've found, which apply to so many things - such as today's political, racial, Congressional, and nationalistic divides- is Dialectic: put forth recently by Hegel, and Chalybaus, -that  Thesis, when countered by Antithesis, should result in a better Synthesis. Taking the better parts of both sides and merging them into a better way!

So far... the new environment has been beneficial for the stock market--until it's Not. Stocks are pushing up against high valuations, number of years (both bond and stocks), debt and market % of GDP, etc.  Even margin debt at low rates is dangerous.

But Sentiment and breadth show no sign of weakness yet. $$ flows out of MMFs into stock MUFs and ETFs; Inflation contained and Volatility low. Here are the numbers:

Date   2/10/2017 2/3/2017
Indices: DJIA  20269 20071
  NAZ  5734 5666
SPX  2316 2297
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.3/4.1 9.8/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.27 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.9 11
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 68.5 71.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1974/1115 1914/1184
Weekly Net: 859 730
     Cumulative: 174671 173812
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 379/44 331/57
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 423/110 350/125
McClellan  Oscillator 27 18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 686 654
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 62.7 61.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 16.7 17.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.8 32.8
Bear  27.7 34.2
US$-WSJ 100.7 99.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 11.8B
MMF flows Change in $B (3.2B) (5.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.2 113.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 6, 2017

GOOD BREADTH

Thanks to Friday's rebound, the overall market came out rather positive, with my cumulative Advance/Decline hitting all time highs, and New Hi's better than Lows. Margin debt backed off a bit, which means short-covering (see below):

Date   2/3/2017 1/27/2017
Indices: DJIA  20071 20093
  NAZ  5666 5660
SPX  2297 2294
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.8/4.6 8.8/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.13 2.15
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11 10.6
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71.3 72.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1914/1184 2115/994
Weekly Net: 730 1121
     Cumulative: 173812 173082
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 331/57 498/41
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 350/125 464/108
McClellan  Oscillator 18 3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 654 682
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.8 58.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.6 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.8 31.6
Bear  34.2 33.5
US$-WSJ 99.7 100.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (8.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (5.7B) 19.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B DEC:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.9 114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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