BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Nothing is Scary with this stock market - neither today nor for the past few weeks; actually since their all time highs in August, The Dow 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been moving sideways, with a slight downward cast. Signs of technical weakness are starting to show up in the Sentiment/Breadth Indicators, however:
The recently added Delta MSI (3600 stocks breaking Moving Averages) broke through its heretofor bullish line two weeks ago for the first time (below 50) a Bearish sign; the Nasdaq New Lows vs. Highs took the lead for the first time since early summer, although the NYSE has not yet. The McClellan Summation Index is poised to break down through the Zero line, as its Oscillator maintains its negative breadth action.
Finally, the Dollar and Bond yields are starting to ramp up, with the rate hike imminent at December's FOMC meetup.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		10/28/2016	10/21/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18161	18145
	NAZ	5190	5257
	SPX	2126	2141
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.6/4.5	7.7/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.91	1.97
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.2	13.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	45%	48%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		887/2252	1968/1151
Weekly Net:		-1365	835
Cumulative:		169598	170963
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	226/128	185/70
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	239/257	165/190
McClellan	Oscillator	-45	-5
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	26	135
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	47.1	42.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	23.1	23.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	24.8	23.7
	Bear	34.1	37.8
US$-WSJ		98.3	98.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(4.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	16.1B	(13.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	501B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.85%	1.74%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.86%	0.83%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116	116.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

RALLY HO (?)

So where's the Hillary Rally? By a wide margin, when the Incumbent party is polled to win the upcoming Presidential Election, the stock market rallies - since August 15 (2 months ago) it has been in a shallow but steady decline of nearly 2%.
 For the first time, my newly added Sentiment Indicator, the Delta SMI, went below 50, a Bearish sign for rising stocks; also new, the Nasdaq New Lows beat New Highs for the week. Stocks were actually slightly UP on the week, but on Low Volume, a technical divergence. Normally this time of year stocks start a rally into February, but the outlook for Bonds does not look good as rates start to climb higher (Prices lower).
Here are the results:

Date>		10/21/2016	10/14/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18145	18138
	NAZ	5257	5214
	SPX	2141	2132
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.7/3.9	8.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.97	2.05
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.3	16.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	48%	55%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1968/1151	1003/2132
Weekly Net:		835	-1129
Cumulative:		170963	170128
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	185/70	202/79
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	165/190	226/186
McClellan	Oscillator	-5	-49
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	135	217
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	42.9	46.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	23.8	23.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	23.7	25.5
	Bear	37.8	33.7
US$-WSJ		98.6	98.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	61	63
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(3.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13.5B)	(6.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		AUG:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.74%	1.80%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.83%	0.84%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.1	115.6

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RALLY HO (?)

ELECT THIS!!

I recently read that they hold Elections in November because that is when the turkeys are picked for Thanksgiving! Technical Analysis says that if the incumbent party is to be re-elected, the market rises into November - so far, not too good for Hilary.

Last week was a definite SOW ( Sign Of Weakness in Wyckoff terms) for the stock market. Breadth was terrible, and the Dollar was stronger - hurting Int'l companies.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		10/14/2016	10/7/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18138	18240
	NAZ	5214	5292
	SPX	2132	2153
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.0/3.9	8.3/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.05	1.84
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.1	13.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	55%	60%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1003/2132	1076/2047
Weekly Net:		-1129	-971
Cumulative:		170128	171257
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	202/79	222/56
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	226/186	283/127
McClellan	Oscillator	-49	-42
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	217	437
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	46.1	46.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	23.1	22.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	25.5	28.8
	Bear	33.7	27.9
US$-WSJ		98.1	96.5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	63	67
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(8.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6.2B)	(25B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	AUG:	471B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.80%	1.72%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.84%	0.83%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.6	116.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ELECT THIS!!

WHAT VACATION

With my annual San Diego trip postponed due to family illness - I still took the week off, but still present the data below for the past two weeks.

Nothing to write home about: 1st negative week in a month, with slightly less Volume.
NASD to NYSE Volume quite low - conservative investing, not speculative- a good sign.
Some weakness in Breadth and stocks on a Buy signal (Hallowe'en Madness), bit still more highs than lows, although number of stocks out there (Wilshire Index) has been decreasing for most of the new Century. McLellan Oscillator near - minus 50 - my usual BUY signal for Monday.
Finally, mutual fund flows were positive (Inflows) for the first time in two months -reported a week late.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		10/7/2016	9/30/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18240	18308
	NAZ	5292	5312
	SPX	2153	2168
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.3/4.5	9.1/4.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.84	1.94
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.5	13.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	60%	65%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1076/2047	1487/1638
Weekly Net:		-971	-151
Cumulative:		171257	172228
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	222/56	253/56
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	283/127	285/99
McClellan	Oscillator	-42	4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	437	559
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	46.7	45.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	22.8	23.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.8	24
	Bear	27.9	37.1
US$-WSJ		96.5	95.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	67	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	7.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(25B)	10.5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	471B	AUG:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.72%	1.60%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.83%	0.76%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.6	118.06

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

WHAT VACATION