Wednesday, October 31, 2012

BACK IN ACTION:

After an extended weekend caused by weather on the Eastern coast, a review of last week saw contained sideways motion between 1400 and 1420 on the S&P 500 (SPX). So far today (Hallowe'en) markets have re-opened but are anything BUT scary.
Indicators seem to be mostly Bullish into the election, with the put/call ratio up to 75 and the McClellan Oscillator minus 37 ( I like -50 for oversold). Opinion surveys, which report midweek, are diverging, with the Inv.Intell. complacent but the  AAII nervous. Bullish % actually gave a SELL signal with its 7 point drop, and Insider Selling leapt up from 12:1 to 55:1 over Buying.

Here are the numbers:

 
Date>
10/26/2012 10/19/2012
Indices: DJIA  13107 13343
  NAZ  2987 3005

SPX  1411 1433
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.0/3.4 9.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.65 2.58
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  75 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.8 17.06
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1151/1998 1864/1288
Weekly Net:
-847 576
     Cumulative: 141186 142033
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 231/113 468/70
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 117/186 220/131
McClellan  Oscillator -37 -18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 381 557
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.5 42.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 29.2 28.7

Bear  43.1 44.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (3)/30 .  4/24
CEOinsider selling 55:1 12:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B .9B 5.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG.: 287B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond AUG.: 715/270/230
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.31% 0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 22, 2012

BACK FROM VACATION:

After a choppy three weeks going nowhere, Friday's Anniversary tank finalized what could be a Triple Top in the SPX, with Sentiment Indicators not indicating much. The NASD/NYSE Volume remains high, a speculative sign, breadth is still strong and the McClellan Oscillator remains negative. The Bull Bear surveys contrast with the AAII showing huge Bear numbers.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio remains high (Bullish), yet in Barron's option column, Larry McMillan's over all equity put/call ratio is coming off its lows - a negative for the market over the past year (very high inverse correlation).
On the downside, MMFs gained billions of $$ while equity mutual funds continued to lose them; Bullish % - a great showing of overbought SPX stocks, is high.
Below are the numbers for the past two weeks, as well as the 7-year highs and lows above that:


Date>
7Yr.HI LOW
Indices: DJIA  14093 6626
  NAZ  2937 1114

SPX  1561 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
NASD/NYSE      
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59
nasd/nyse    
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..    
Weekly Net:    
     Cumulative: 143458 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator May.'12:110 -100 :10/08
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 -1514
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  

Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    
CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 381B(7/07)  
MMF flows Change in $B

MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond


 Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation



 LAST WEEK'S SENTIMENT NUMBERS:




Date>
10/12/2012 10/19/2012
Indices: DJIA  13328 13343
  NAZ  3044 3005

SPX  1428 1433
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.7/2.9 9.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.66 2.58
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.1 17.06
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 884/2268 1864/1288
Weekly Net:
-1768 576
     Cumulative: 141457 142033
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 294/71 468/70
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 163/132 220/131
McClellan  Oscillator -25 -18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 520 557
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.7 42.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.5 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.6 28.7

Bear  38.8 44.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k .  4/24
CEOinsider selling 11:1 12:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (2.3B) 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B (1.4B) 5.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG: 287B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond AUG: 715/270/230
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation n/a 0.30%






                                       
                                   

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, October 1, 2012

FOUR MORE YEARS?:

Readers of my blogs/Examiner columns are familiar with the Election Year stock market model since 1900 produced by Ned Davis Research - going according to plan ( an UP September), now the divergence begins:
According to the chart, from October 1 on, if the Incumbent is to win, all is well and the market (i.e. the economy) will rise until year end. Only if the Incumbent is to lose (not get termed out) will October and the rest of 2012 be flat to down. Of course, as we know, there are exceptions.

Last week's prediction of the market letting off the gas (not hitting the brake) held true, with extremes in the overbought area. Things have modulated - the McClellan Oscillator fell to minus 29; the AAII bull/bear ratio is even. The speculative NASD to NYSE Volume ratio is again high, as is the CBOE Equity put/call ratio - both Bullish. Contrarily, the MMFund flows reversed again to INFLOWS and equity mutual funds lost funds.

Next week I shall again (!) be on vacation to San Diego, away from my desktop until the following week. Since I am visiting my cousin who is a V.P. at J. P. Morgan, I want to show him an example of my DITM strategy using his stock. It demonstrates how one can earn 10% with almost NO risk. For details, please see:


There are also two important investment meetings coming up next week, listed in my Examiner column ( the reader can subscribe to the column for future meetups and columns at:


Here are the  Sentiment numbers:

 


Date>
9/28/2012 9/21/2012
Indices: DJIA  13437 13579
  NAZ  3116 3179

SPX  1440 1460
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.9/3.6 9.2/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.47 2.09
nasd/nyse


Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.73 13.98
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1080/2083 1371/1768
Weekly Net:
-1003 -397
     Cumulative: 142058 143061
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 426/38 505/32
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/75 332/74
McClellan  Oscillator -29 4
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 749 888
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51 54.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.1 37.5

Bear  36.5 33.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 0/24. 9/22.
CEOinsider selling 44:1 42:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 79
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 8.5B (10.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.27%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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