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Monday, February 27, 2012

CEO SELLOFF:

The headline number this week is the (legal) Insider Selling by key officers of corporations: 92:1 is higher than the late October 2011 selloff, where it was only 60:1. Other high numbers include the Bullish %, at 85  ( multi-year high is 88).
Coming off extremes and reverting to the mean are the newsletter surveys (AAII and I.I.), large and small traders' commitments ( large short, small traders long); although Volume remains light, the NASD to NYSE still shows speculation. NYSE new highs to lows are down slightly - 336 to 7 from 362 to 7 (same 7?). Short term bullish is the high CBOE put/call ratio, as traders hedge.
Here are the numbers for last week:


Date>
2/24/2012 2/17/2012
Indices: DJIA  12982 12949
NAZ  2963 2951

SPX  1365 1361
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 6.9/2.9 9.4/3.9
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.38 2.41
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 59
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.3 17.8

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1790/1343 2185/972

Weekly Net: 447 1213

     Cumulative: 133581 133134
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 336/7 362/7
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 230/44 265/44
McClellan  Oscillator -6 -3
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1231 1278
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.1 54.8
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 26.6 25.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 43.7 42.7

Bear  27.5 26.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (8)/30 (7)/32
CEOinsider selling 91:1 32:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 706 723
3-box rev Bullish%-  85 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag 0
MMF flows Change in $B 6.2B 2.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.
290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.31% 0.30%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.08 5.01….

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 20, 2012

EURO OR DRACHMA? A GREEK TRAGEDY:

Greek fishermen have resorted to barter, using products of the sea for currency - it's called "Octupi" the Agora, or "squid" pro quo! (sorry about that).
Although we have a holiday here in the U.S., Papa-Demos (Father of the People) must address the concerns of those revolting peasants. I learned many years ago to "Watch what they DO, not what they SAY!"  How much an inevitable default is factored into our market is TBD.
Meanwhile, several Sentiment/Breadth Indicators remain near recent highs, just as the markets do: the NASDAQ to NYSE Volume ratio, for one - meaning more speculation. As with most all Indicators, the public is right until the extreme, when it isn't. My cumulative Adv./Decl. number is at a record high, although the McClellan Oscillator is @ zero. The Investment Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio widened more, but still off the record. Bullish per cent, at 84, is almost at the record 88 -stocks on a BUY signal. Over the past month the margin debt has increased 10%, the same % as the decrease in NYSE short interest (covering).

At this weekend's S.F. Option meeting I had a request to resume my e-mail alert to interested persons about my blog - if you'd prefer to be delisted from this "spamming", please let me know - I can take it.
Here are the numbers:


Date>
2/17/2012 2/10/2012
Indices: DJIA  12949 12801
NAZ  2951 2903

SPX  1361 1342
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 9.4/3.9 9.3/3.7
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.41 2.51
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 60
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.8 20.8

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2185/972 1254/1900

Weekly Net: 1213 -646

     Cumulative: 133134 131921
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 362/7 374/15
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 265/44 263/35
McClellan  Oscillator -3 -17
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1278 1325
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.8 52.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.8 28.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.7 51.6

Bear  26.6 20.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (7)/32 (13)/41
CEOinsider selling 32:1 55:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 723 695
3-box rev Bullish%-  84 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 Wk lag 1.9B
MMF flows Change in $B 2.9B (.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT. 290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.30% 0.28%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.01......... 4.97M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 13, 2012

WHAT, ME WORRY?:

Thanks to Friday's selloff, the week past was basically "unch". But worry clouds still abound. Indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, NYSE cum.A/D, and VIX came off extremes, while others cause concern: CEO Insider (legal) selling was a whopping 55:1; NASD to NYSE Volume was a record 2.51.One Technician on TV last week advised using Bollinger Bands on this ratio. NYSE New Lows for the week were only 15, versus 374 NHs.
Newsletter Bulls climbed higher, while the AAII Bears dropped from 25% to 20%. Bullish % is now 83% - only 5 points off its multi-year high. A reader scooped Barron's to tell me the Baltic Dry Index, which has been posting new lows lately was apparently caused by overbuilding of ships, not the global economy signal, which should be corrected shortly.
Here are the numbers:

Date>
2/10/2012 2/3/2012
Indices: DJIA  12801 12862
  NAZ  2903 2905

SPX  1342 1344
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 9.3/3.7 9.6/4.4
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.51 2.18
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 60
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.8 17.1

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1254/1900 2496/665

Weekly Net: -646 1831

     Cumulative: 131921 132567
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 374/15 526/32
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 263/35 341/39
McClellan  Oscillator -17 57
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1325 1236
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.1 48.9
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 28.7 29.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 51.6 43.8

Bear  20.2 25.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (13)/41 (12)/42
CEOinsider selling 55:1 26:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 695 651
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (.8B) (21B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.  
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.24%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.97M 4.89

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, February 6, 2012

TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January;  the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.
For only the second time in many months equity flows have increased into mutual funds, and MMF outflows were a huge $21B. Talking heads are glowing with a global economic recovery, but China is slowing, as is Europe, and the Baltic Dry Index hit a multi-year low last week at 651 -cut in half from its high.
Usually reliable Bullish % and McClellan Oscillator are also at high levels - large commodity traders are shorting, while small traders are long the SPX futures. Insider (CEO) Selling is fairly but consistently high in recent weeks. Finally, AAII Bears are coming of near record "teen" lows.
Here are the numbers:

Date>
2/3/2012 1/27/2012
Indices: DJIA  12862 12660
  NAZ  2905 2816

SPX  1344 1316
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 4.4/9.6 ..4.0/9.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.18 2.28
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 62
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 18.5

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2496/665 2251/905

Weekly Net: 1831 1346

     Cumulative: 132567 130736
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 526/32 367/25
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 341/39 200/39
McClellan  Oscillator 57 47
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1236 1050
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.9 50
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 29.8 28.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 43.8 48.4

Bear  25.1 18.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (12)/42 (2)/16
CEOinsider selling 26:1 28:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 651 753
3-box rev Bullish%-  82 80
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag .8B
MMF flows Change in $B (21B) (15B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.
267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.
618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.24% 0.22%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.89 4.82

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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