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Monday, May 30, 2011

QE II - SHIP OF FOOLS:

As the QE II sinks into oblivion, the markets are apparently ignoring it , as well as the debt ceiling issue (Treasuries are again going the wrong way, just like last year after the Fed decision).

Other than the AAII Bull/Bear inversion (bullish for the market), not much has changed going into Memorial Day.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1244112512140936626
Nasdaq:2796280328611114
S&P 500:133113331561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 587196-10/0846-1/03
VIX:16.017.4908.8
McClellan Osc:16(20)108(123)
McClellan Sum:4585731568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
n/an/a6322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
n/an/a54.416
AAII Bull:
25.626.7n/an/a
AAII Bear:
41.441.3n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(1.5B)
Money Market Flows24B(12.4B)

Baltic Dry Index:1467127111700663
Bullish %:
7474892
Insider Corporate Sellers:23:128:1235:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 23, 2011

THE LOVE OF POWER, THE POWER OF LOVE!:

Talk about "Behavioral" Science - who is next to fall from Grace? Strauss-Kahn, Arnold, Tiger, Spitzer; even Lance Armstrong - the All-American Boy- fell in love with his own blood. Even Barry Bonds' image is worse than Greece's Bonds.
It looks like Sell In May is back in favor, after many years reversing that trend - from worst to first and back again. Although many Sentiment Indicators have been warning of at least a Stop-Look-Listen Trading Range, which started in February, and ending in a MayDay "Upthrust after Distribution", current IOI's (Indicators of Interest) are as follows:
Although legal Insider Trading (of Key Employees) set a record high in Selling earlier this month, the previous record was at the start of the March '09 Bull Run.
Bullish "for" the market this week are the CBOE put/call ratio of 71, a negative 20 on the McClellan Oscillator, and MMF flows doing a huge flip-flop from $24B inflows to $12B outflows.Technically, most markets have pierced their 50-day MA, but are still stretched above the 200-day averages. Hopefully the correction will end there.
My newest Indicators are showing danger zones - NASD Volume vs. NYSE (speculation), and Commitment of Traders -large vs. small. Finally, the Bullish % fell 3 points (6% on a 2 pt. box Point & Figure chart), which is material enough to be a Sell signal.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1251212595140936626
Nasdaq:2803282828611114
S&P 500:133313371561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 716696-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.417.1908.8
McClellan Osc:(20)(14)108(123)
McClellan Sum:5736771568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
n/an/a6322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
n/an/a54.416
AAII Bull:
26.730.8n/an/a
AAII Bear:
41.335.5n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.2B)
  
Money Market Flows(12.4B)24B

Baltic Dry Index:1271130611700663
Bullish %:
7477892
Insider Corporate Sellers:28:143:1235:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 16, 2011

IN THE MONTH OF MAY:

Although May, so far, is obeying the SELL IN MAY rule by being in a downtrend - lower high and low closes, support at 1330 on the SPX is looking to hold. Last week's Sentiment Indicators were boringly benign, to say the least; miniscule moves in most of them as well as Indices. The shocking Insider Selling (legal, for a change) abated greatly. Any moves were actually on the positive side (inverted AAII Bull/Bear ratio). The complementary Inv. Intell. ratio remains hidden, unless a reader can locate it somewhere other than a pay site. Bad news abounds, with QEII apparently ending, and Greece and Japan looking like bugs searching for a windshield.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1259512638140936626
Nasdaq:2828282728611114
S&P 500:133713401561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 666396-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.118.4908.8
McClellan Osc:(14)(13)108(123)
McClellan Sum:6776411568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
n/an/a6322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
n/an/a54.416
AAII Bull:
30.835.5n/an/a
AAII Bear:
35.531.9n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2B)
  
Money Market Flows24B(.4B)

Baltic Dry Index:1306131411700663
Bullish %:
7778892
Insider Corporate Sellers:43:1235:1235:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 9, 2011

LACK OF INTELLIGENCE:

Yet another one bites the dust: Stockcharts.com website has seen fit to charge money for their weekly Investor's Intelligence Bull/Bear survey - unless found elsewhere, it will be deleted from this report. As I found out several years ago in my research for my CMT designation on Sentiment, the AAII is superior anyway which will remain in the table below.
By far the most extreme Indicator last week, surpassing the high number from the prior week, was the "legal" Insider Sales of officers - zooming from 163 Sellers to 1 Buyer, up to 235! This replaced the old multi-year high of 198:1. Ironically, the last time these numbers were so high was at the BEGINNING of the March '09 rally, and again in July '09 as the rally resumed in earnest.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1263812810140936626
Nasdaq:2827287328611114
S&P 500:134013631561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 635896-10/0846-1/03
VIX:18.414.7908.8
McClellan Osc:(13)46108(123)
McClellan Sum:6416721568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
n/an/a6322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
n/an/a54.416
AAII Bull:
35.537.9n/an/a
AAII Bear:
31.930.6n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(.7B)
  
Money Market Flows(.4B)16.8B

Baltic Dry Index:1314125411700663
Bullish %:
7882892
Insider Corporate Sellers:235:1163:1235:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, May 2, 2011

SELL IN MAY?:

Fresh off a vacation, there seems to be a toppiness in the air, at least technically: Point & Figure targets (although 1450 SPX is doable), previous highs are on the radar, and even a Fibonacci target looms.
The McClellan Oscillator has come off negative to challenge my +50 mark at 46; my cum. A/D total is at a new high, as are the Commitment of Traders' Small Traders, with Large still shorting.
Also tying a new high is my new Indicator - NYSE Volume divided by NASD, a speculative sign. Margin debt continues to rise over $300B, although money has shifted to MMFs recently.
A final extreme - CEO Insider Sales hit a whopping 163 to 1 last week, although they sold heavily in the March '09 rally inception.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1281012505140936626
Nasdaq:2873282028611114
S&P 500:136313371561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 586096-10/0846-1/03
VIX:14.714.7908.8
McClellan Osc:46(30)108(123)
McClellan Sum:6724801568(1514)
           Newsletter Surveys



InvestorsIntel.Bull:
n/an/a6322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
n/an/a54.416
AAII Bull:
37.932.2n/an/a
AAII Bear:
30.631n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a1.9B  
Money Market Flows16.8Bn/a

Baltic Dry Index:1254n/a11700663
Bullish %:
8274892
Insider Corporate Sellers:163:1n/a198:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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