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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

HOLIDAY ISSUE:

After a positive week heading into the Christmas holiday, not much changed with the exception of these extremes: The AAII ratio of Bulls to Bears jumped mightily with Bulls advancing from 50 to a heady 63%, and the Bears all the way down to 16 from 27%. The other extreme remains the Bullish per cent at a near record 84% of stocks on a BUY signal. Money continues to flow from domestic stock funds, but also MMFs. Possibly buying gold or ETFs. Insider selling jumped higher week over week, even with the 2-year tax cut extension.

This week is the actual Santa Claus rally time, so we shall see if it holds true, with a weak start.

Here are the numbers:


MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1157311491140936626
Nasdaq:2665264228051114
S&P 500:125612431561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 535096-10/0846-1/03
VIX:16.516.1908.8
McClellan Osc:151108(123)
McClellan Sum:4634111568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
58.856.86322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
20.620.554.416
AAII Bull:
63.350.2n/an/a
AAII Bear:
16.427.1n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.4B)
Money Market Flows(9.3B)(33.2B)

Baltic Dry Index:1999200011700663
Bullish %:
8484882
Insider Corporate Sellers:28:119:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 20, 2010

(SENTI)-BREADTH-MENT:

Moving into the quiet Holiday period, and hopefully a Santa Claus Rally (bet. Xmas and New Year's) only a couple things stand out:
Volume was high last options expiry week, but the Nasdaq divided by NYSE ratio was low (Bearish); also Bearish FOR the market was the toppy Bullish %, at 84, now near its multi-year high of 88. Domestic Equity mutual fund flows swung dramatically last week (year-end adjusting) from $25B inflows to $33B outflows; as for the Sentiment side, Investor Intelligence Bulls crept even higher, above 50%.

For readers who have followed my recent DITM (deep-in-the-money covered call option strategy), they can do so at http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com and read about my recent trade earning an ANNUALIZED 21.4% on Mattel. It's a new variation on a theme capturing annual dividends with the calls, rather than quarterly.

Here are the numbers for last week - Happy Holidays to all:


MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1149111410140936626
Nasdaq:2642263728051114
S&P 500:124312401561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 504696-10/0846-1/03
VIX:16.117.6908.8
McClellan Osc:19108(123)
McClellan Sum:4114361568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
56.856.26322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
20.521.354.416
AAII Bull:
50.253.0n/an/a
AAII Bear:
27.122.6n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.7B)
Money Market Flows(33.2B)25.3B

Baltic Dry Index:2000211111700663
Bullish %:
8482882
Insider Corporate Sellers:19:138:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 13, 2010

ORANGE ALERT - CAUTION!!!:

After summing up a decade of this column's Weekly Sentiment Indicators, the strongest ones decided to show off their strength last week by exhibiting the most Bearish (FOR the market, not ON the market) in years. As reported elsewhere (AAII newsletter, Barron's) the surveys were at exaggerated extremes; the CBOE put/call ratio and VIX both slid to recent lows (complacency); even CEO Insider Selling has been huge, although that is almost a contrary indicator, judging from 3 or 4 recent periods. The new Nasdaq/NYSE Volume ratio even went low, showing a non-speculative feeling, even as the market surges on with unanimous crowd support and historic yearend bullishness.
Here are the numbers for last week:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1141011382140936626
Nasdaq:2637259128051114
S&P 500:124012241561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 465396-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.618.0908.8
McClellan Osc:914108(123)
McClellan Sum:4364211568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
56.255.46322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
21.321.854.416
AAII Bull:
53.049.7n/an/a
AAII Bear:
22.626.2n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(1.8B)  
Money Market Flows25.3B(3.2B)

Baltic Dry Index:2111209611700663
Bullish %:
8279882
Insider Corporate Sellers:38:134:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 6, 2010

DECEMBER RALLY?:

December is usually a good month for the market and it seems that this year may be no exception; however, several Sentiment Indicators are flashing at least corrective warnings: the Bullish % is closing in on record highs, the market surveys are too complacent, and the coincident VIX is lying in a low range.

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1138211092140936626
Nasdaq:2591253428051114
S&P 500:122411891561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 536196-10/0846-1/03
VIX:18.022.2908.8
McClellan Osc:14(29)108(123)
McClellan Sum:4215011568(1514)
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
55.455.76322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
21.821.654.416
AAII Bull:
49.747.4n/an/a
AAII Bear:
26.224.7n/an/a
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.6B)  
Money Market Flows(3.2B)15.4B

Baltic Dry Index:2096217011700663
Bullish %:
7977882
Insider Corporate Sellers:34:155:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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