"DOG" DAYS OF SUMMER:

DOG being the symbol for the ETF shorting the DJIA.

For the 13th time (out of 13,in this decade) the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio indicated the recent bottom in the stock market - small sampling in the technical world, but 100% has to be respected. As Barron's reported from Bespoke Group, in this two week rally, the largest gainers were: those most heavily shorted , the "fallen angels" which fell the furthest previously, and the ones that were rated worst by analysts! Despite this, Nasdaq short interest rose 4% last week.

Although this rally could run for awhile there are some short term toppy signs - the Nova/Ursa fund ratio jumped to .94 (up exactly 50% from the previous week); the McClellan Oscillator is at an overbought 72 with its concomitant Summation Index nearing 1,000; and the Bullish per cent of stocks on a Buy signal at 68 is near its high water mark of 74, although its multi-year high has been 88%.

A scarier number is the Thomson/Reuters 144 planned sales to buy ratio of Insiders: 41:1 after last week's 48:1. Anecdotally (more in future weeks) this has been a non-contrarian indicator over the past few years.

While the newsletter surveys are neutral, the VIX continues down to recent lows lulling traders into complacency.

Here are last week's numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/24/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9093………8743.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1965………1886…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 979…………940………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …66…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 23.1………..24.3…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc………72…………..49…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..855……….534………..…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36.7……….35.6………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 35.6………35.6…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……37.6/42.4….28.7/47.1…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa MF………0.94………0.56nl…………….2.2……..0.56

Baltic Dry Index ……3345………3542………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…68…………55buy………….…88…….....2

*Insider corp sellers. 48:1………..13:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.5B…….(0.7B)…..

ETF InflowsL……… (1.3B)…..(0.4B)…….

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

INSIDE INSIGHTS:

The most noticable indicator change this week after a huge rally was the Insider Selling ratio to buyers, nearly quadrupling! Although the Fall semester of college is about to resume, it's unlikely that it is the principle reason, although it is an intermediate rather than shorter term signal. Similarly, the McClellan Oscillator moved from an extreme Buy signal of -44 to a +49 Sell.
Still Bullish is the Bullish per cent, giving its usual buy signal of 3 boxes (2-pts. each, for 6% material move) to 55, albeit mid-range. The AAII investor survey is also Bearish ON the market (Bullish FOR it), at 28/48.
Here are last week's stats:

MktSentiment. 7/17/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8743………8146.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1886………1756…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 940…………879………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …63…………..80……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 24.3………..29.0…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc………49…………-44…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..534……….368………..…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…35.6……….42.7………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 35.6………30.3…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……28.7/47.1….27.9/54.7…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa MF………0.56nl…… 0.62…………….2.2……..0.56

Baltic Dry Index ……3542………2985………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…55buy………47………….…88…….....2

*Insider corp sellers. 48:1………..13:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (0.7B)…..(1.3B)…

ETF InflowsL……… (0.4B)…….7B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

SURPRISE, SURPRISE:

Who would not be surprised by the abrupt intraday turnaround in the markets today (Monday)? Anyone who has followed this blog's recent 10-year wrapup of effective Sentiment Indicators - specifically the 100% correct CBOE Equity put/call ratio, calling 12 of 12 major bottoms (zero tops). Over the weekend it was noted that this ratio hit an extreme of 80, after a quite high 75 last week.
Another quite accurate Indicator - the McClellan Oscillator- also moved down to a negative 44 last week, nearing my -50 benchmark; and the AAII Bull/Bear survey went to extreme with a 27.9 to 54.7 ratio displaying very few Bulls in their ranks. Also notable this week is the addition of the Rydex Nova to Ursa (bear) fund ratio, newly re-added to the mix, mainly because it hit a new low of 0.62 (fewer Bulls to Bears ).
In addition, the U. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment dipped from 70.8% to 64.6%.
Here are the recent numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/10/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8146………8280.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1756………1796…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 879…………896………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …80……..75….…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 29.0……….. 27.9…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc…-44…….-19…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum……..368…………612…….…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…42.7………..41.4………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 30.3……….29.9…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……27.9/54.7….37.8/44.6…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa MF……… 0.62………0.76…………….2.2……..0.62

Baltic Dry Index ……2985……..3520………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…47………….57………….…88…….....2

*Insider corp sellers.13:1…………7:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (1.3B)…..(.3B)…

ETF InflowsL……… .7B……..(3.2B)…

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

FOLLOW THE LEADER:

Looking back over this year, according to AMG Research, Mutual Fund outflows of $20B, which peaked the last week of February through the second week of March (remember that week?), did not reverse until - you guessed it- the exact top of the market on June 11 with $14B Inflows! Although slightly negative this week, they are back to their +/- $1B range.
Last week my decade-long stalwarts (e-mail me for the complete Indicator matrix) that performed the best were: CBOE put/call ratio (the best at calling market bottoms) which climbed still higher to 75; McClellan at a -19 (still a ways from the -50 or so needed); but the Bullish % -stocks on a BUY signal is itself on a SELL signal of 57 (funnily unchanged from the week before, as was the McClellan Summation Index). Did they take the Holiday week off?
Here are the complete numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/3/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8280………8438.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1796………1838…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 896…………918………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq.

put/call ..........…75…………..73……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 27.9………25.9…….......79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc…-19…….-2…….............108-.........(-100)

McClelSum……..…612……612….…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.4…….43.6….…63 ............22.2

Bear:………… 29.9……….28.7……… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……37.8/44.6….28.0/48.8…….…..

Baltic Dry Index ……3520……..3703…….11700……663

Bullish%- …….…57………..57sell………….…88.....2

*Insider corp sellers.7:1…………9:1…………108:1………….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (.3B)……(.7B)…

ETF InflowsL……… (3.2B)…..(1.9B)….

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.