BUY/BYE:

The vast preponderance of sentiment points to Bullish FOR the market (Bearish ON the market) - Bob Brinker, one of the brighter lights in the room, says his 60-day put/call ratio says BUY; Richard Arms has a new predictor - a market Volatility MA -which is showing a 5-year high (since 2003's bottom); Barron's opines that the commodity market is 30% overblown due to speculators, investment and index funds , while commercial hedgers -the so-called smart money- is going the other way. If money comes out of commodities, and also low-paying Treasuries (now that the Fed is "guaranteeing" other debt), added to the $4T in money market funds, this market could scream to the upside at some point, especially with record short interest in both listed and OTC exchanges.
So far Volume is not showing this huge potential, and the public is racing for the Money Market Funds ($36B last week), which is also bullish. Of the other sentiment indicators, Insider Sales by CEOs, et.al., is still low, at 9:1; the U. of Michigan Confidence number was at a 16-year low of 69%; both IBD and Bullish per cent are on BUY signals; public shorting vs. specialists is high, and the Inv.Intell. survey is still inverted, although the AAII reverted back to a Bull plurality.
I have added a couple of new indicators, which I am testing - bi-weekly short interest on the exchanges, and the weekly Volume on the SDS, which is the double-strength shorting of the S&P500 (replacing the old Rydex Ursa/Nova stat which went away).

MktSentiment. 3/28/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12216………12361………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2261……….2258…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1315……….1329…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …76………….94……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.7………..26.6…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 70………….76……………76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………0………….-7……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-511…………-627…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36.7………30.9………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 41.1………44.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……41.6/33.6……25.2/54.3……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…48………….46…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 9.73……….9.35……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…15.5………8.74……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………50/25…….50/25
Bullish%- …………40……….32buy……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.9:1……6:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Healthcare (1/2 of total sector buys)
Most Sellers: Technology

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BUY/BYE:

% LIKE IKE:

It has been half a century since the shortest Treasury Bill was 1/2% - one of many notable extremes from a shortened week. Contrary to my quoting the Trader's Almanac that when Easter falls in March, both parenthetical days of surrounding the weekend tend to be down. To have back to back up days totalling the most points since the '03 bottom flies in the face of that small sampling anecdote.
Cases can be made for the market bottom being in or for just a shortcovering oversold bump after the Fed's accommodation. Short term it is hard to ignore the bearish sentiment and solid upside momentum of the last few days. Although I stopped following the hourly ISEE call/put ratio, I noticed today it was screaming a near-200 Sell signal, yet the market ignored it today. New lows to new highs last week were 13:1 and 23:1 for the NYSE and Nasdaq, and the McClellan Summation Index is very low exhibiting a weak Advance/Decline period. Tom McClellan will no doubt be addressing this topic at next month's TSAA Seminar (see tsaasf.org for details).
Making a strong Bullish case are the newsletter surveys, the record CBOE put/call ratio, record short interest on the NYSE. Money markets, even with low-going-lower rates are 50% greater than the bottom of '03 -$3.4T. The Bullish per cent went from a Sell to a Buy signal in 2 weeks.
ETFs had huge inflows last week, yet domestic mutual funds are showing 10 months of outflows, more than after 1987. Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/21/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12361………11951………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2258………..2212…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1329……….1288…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …94………….94……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 26.6………..31.2…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 76………….74……………76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-7…………-56……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-627…………-477…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…30.9……….31………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 44.7………43.3………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……25.2/54.3…..20.4/59.2……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…46………….43…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 9.35…………9.7……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…8.74………10……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………50/25……26/53
Bullish%- …………32buy…..27……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.6:1…..5:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/3 of total)
Most Sellers: Finance

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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% LIKE IKE:

BENHAWK DOWN:

Helicopter Ben is firing all his ammo this week, using huge rate cuts, cash and Treasuries. "BEARron's" has never been so outright declamatory of imminent market failure (reminiscent of Paul McRae Montgomery's contrary magazine cover indicator), and the sentiment indicators are screaming for a rally. This inevitable leverage unwinding is creating the biggest redistribution of wealth since the 1930s - something that the socialists and Islamofascists never dreamed of.
Every U.S.-traded commodity is at record highs, many at double-00 levels (Oil, gold, Yen) which could be a stop, look and listen area.
This week is packed with ugliness, with LEH,GS earnings out, the rate cut, premature option expiry (Thursday), and even March Madness basketball pools. Jeff Hirsch notes in his Traders' Almanac that when Easter comes in March (also the same week as St. Patrick's Day) , both the day before AND the day after that weekend are usually down for the markets (small sampling can be useful as warnings).
Although the preponderance of historical evidence calls for a huge rally in the Fall, we could have "A" bottom in the next few days, as short interest is huge. The previous 400+ pt. day before last week was at "THE" bottom on March 13, 2003.
Money Market Funds, now at $3.4T are below the CPI Inflation rate (3.2% and going lower, vs. 4% respectively) and waiting to redeploy.
Finally, Ned Davis Research cites the average of 10 past Recessions have market peaks 7 months before it is declared, with the market nadir 6 months into it, with the Recession lasting an average of 10 months. That would put Sept./Oct. of 2008 as the low.
The Bullishly "Screaming" indicators consist of - a CBOE put/call ratio of unheard of 94; VIX at 32; McClellan Oscillator at -56; an unheard of "inverted" Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear survey ratio of 31/43; and the Bullish Per Cent is down at 27%.

MktSentiment. 3/14/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 11951………11893………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2212………..2212…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1288………..1293…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …94………….90……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 31.2…………27.5…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 74………….73……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-56………..-65……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-477…………-217…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31…………41.9………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 43.3………36.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……20.4/59.2…..22/51.7……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…43…………..42…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- …9.7………10.1……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…10…………12.7……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………26/53……..38/43
Bullish%- …………27……….28sell……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.5:1……….13:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Energy

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BENHAWK DOWN:

DOW 40,000 BY 2008!:

Got your attention? This was about the only wrong call by Harry S. Dent in his 1999 book, The Roaring 2000s Investor. His extensive research on birthrate demographics as they correlate to markets is quite informative. Although Bob Prechter goes the other way in his prediction (triple-digit DJIA), both agree on the miserable outlook for the next decade, as 80 million boomers retire, sell their houses to downsize and relocate.
For the short term things look equally ugly, but anyone shorting this market must be nimble, as shortcovering rallies can be sharp and fierce. In a normal environment, many indicators are at extremes: the CBOE put/call ratio is at a high of 90( after the 92 in January); the McClellan Oscillator extended at -65. Although the surveys do not reflect the entire week, the AAII bull/bear ratio was also extended at 22 to 51, respectively; the Bullish Per Cent, although whipsawed off of a faux Buy signal, is at a lowly 28% of stocks on a buy signal .
Thanks to input by a reader, I've learned that UBS has stopped publishing its monthly investor confidence, which is now deleted from the following numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/7/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 11893………12266………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2212………..2271…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1293………..1330…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …90………….80……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 27.5………..26.5…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 73…………..60……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-65………..-31……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-217…………..10…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.9………….42………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 36.6…………36.4………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……22/51.7……….34.3/45.3……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…42……………48…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- …10.1……….9.12……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.7………..12.7……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………38/43………26/52
Bullish%- …………28sell…………38……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..13…………8………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/3 of total)
Most Sellers: Energy, Healthcare

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

DOW 40,000 BY 2008!:

MARCH BADNESS:

This could prove to be a very exciting and critical month - market-wise, politically and economically. This week is a crucial Democratic test, the Ides of March offer an FOMC meeting, with the Fed expected to cut 50 basis points; St.Patrick's Day and Easter come in the same week, along with the NCAA basketball tournament. Traders' Almanac's Jeff Hirsch states that whenever Easter comes in March, the days before Good Friday and after Easter Sunday are not too good for the markets, atypical for Holidays.
Technically, the markets all broke up out of their symmetrical triangle, with a fakeout up to Resistance, and now have fallen to Support levels, which, if broken, could trigger all those black boxes into action. If, as Robert Prechter maintains, confidence leads markets, things are not looking too well. The U. if Michigan investor confidence fell to 70.8%, down from 78.4% in January; Conference Board's index is also down to a 5-year low, and the UBS indicator is waiting to be updated from December.
Despite this, the week's sentiment indicators are quite benign, almost Bullish: the CBOE put/call ratio is at 80, the McClellen Oscillator is getting oversold at -31, and the newsletter surveys are skeptical. From the early week rally, the Bullish per cent actually went on a Buy signal, as we test Range lows this week. Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 2/29/2008 Last Week..... 5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12266………12381………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2271………..2303…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1330………..1353…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …50……………72……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 26.5………..24.0…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 60……………65……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-31………..…1……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………10………………-65…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…42……………41.6………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 36.4………….33.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……34.3/45.3……..33.2/44.7……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…48…………….45…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …9.12…………8.88……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.7………….10.5……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………26/52………..33.3/33.3
Bullish%- …………38…………..34……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..8………..18………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Healthcare

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

MARCH BADNESS: